Preflop question

Hand: Live 5-10 HE


EP1 limps, EP2 raises


I have pocket nines next to act.


EP1 is loose preflop


I think that EP2 likely has AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AKs,AQs,AKo, but also could have (although a little less likely in my opinion) AQo, AJo, KQs.


The small blind may fold. The BB will probably not fold to two raises. It is also unlikely I will be able to get everyone to fold before the river no matter what happens.


This sitiuations seems like it has no obvious answer. Raise, Fold, Call?


Am I right? Any commments appreciated.


Joe P

You must fold pocket nines in early position when the guy on your immediate right is telling you he has AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK, or AQ. About half the time you are a huge dog and the other half of the time you are a marginal favorite. This makes you a long term money loser. Furthermore, you have players behind you who may 3-bet.

I don't think getting someone to fold is an option with the two UTG players in the pot.


My calculations (2/50+2/50+2/50) you have 8.3-1 odds of hitting a set. Crank it up a bit to account for the times you hit and your opponents hit a better hand and and say you need say 10-1.


With both UTG players not going anywhere and likely betting for you, I think you can call in this position. The implied odds I think are better than 10-1.


So, unless I've calculated wrong (quite possible) I think it's a call.

I think you can call the preflop as long as you are very confident about your post-flop play

Your implied odds are ruined when the up front cost is high. In his post, the pot is $3+$5 {blinds} +5 (limper) +10 (raiser) = $23 and his cost is $10. That means his odds are 2.3-1. Still want to call with 8.5-1 odds for hitting a set?


In addition you REALLY need to eliminate your ideas of others betting for you from any analysis of LLHE, IMO.


KJS

There are really no good flops for this hand that do not contain a 9. Even a seasoned pro will have difficulty with this hand in this situation if they do not flop a set. Jim Brier explained why. Playing good post-flop most likely means you have to flop a set or fold and the cost to do that is not there. I would be curious to see some hypothetical situations where you do not flop a set in this situation and can play aggressively with confidence that you have the best of it.


KJS

I agree on the up front cost being high. And, I agree that the only two good cards to come out are nines -- and when one comes out there still could be trouble.


My calculations 2 EP, SB and BB will all be in the pot going into the flop if the bet is called. TSo, there are 4 BB in the pot. At the flop he's getting 4 to 1 which is no where near the odds you need.


However, I'm figuring implied odds if I make the set on the flop. If that happends I'm very certain UTG1 is betting the flop and all will call. So, there's another 2 BB in the pot. On the turn, again I'm assuming that UTG1 is betting, and if not UTG2 it betting where I can pop it. So, there's another 2BB in the pot, likely 4 BB. Add one more BB for the river because someone always has to see it. Total 2BB(pre),2BB(flop),4BB(turn),1BBriver = 9BB.


However in the games I'm in 1/2 (PP), if there are three players in and the late players know the blinds are calling, at least one or two more players will jump in. So, this may cover my mistakes as they will make up for "overcalculation"


I don't think it's as bad as you paint, but after counting all the bets exactly and all the "ifs" I'd have to say that the call is a bad one.


Thanks.

When was being confident about having the best of it a requirement for playing agressively?