fold this river?

[el Jefe]

my first post (so be nice) but have been an avid reader of the forum and low-limit player for several months now.

typical $3-6 live game late on a Friday night. table is full of calling stations, bad players, etc. The only player other than myself that seems to have any kind of starting hand standards is UTG in this hand (he's winning quite a bit). The SB is playing loose-drunk with occassional post-flop aggression.

I'm in the CO with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, one MP calls, I call, button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
blinds check, <font color="red"> UTG bets </font>, MP folds, <font color="red"> I raise </font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
<font color="red"> UTG bets, I raise </font>, SB calls, UTG calls

River (11 BB) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
<font color="red"> SB bets, UTG raises </font>, I fold my small set

good laydown? automatic call?

thanks.

-el Jefe

[arkady]

el jefe,

Whoa, you are most surely beat here. SB looks like he was chasing and from the looks of things got it, but UTG is also showing much strength, in fact too much. Seems like SB caught his flush, but UTG thinks he can beat that? Good lord, i would fold that in a hurry.

[JARID]

I don't laydown sets too often, but I think in this instance it is ok.

[el Jefe]

after I fold the SB calls and flips over A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a rivered pair.
UTG shows J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and takes down the pot.

the lack of a pre-flop raise from UTG was what threw me off and had me believing both had drawing hands.

my two biggest weaknesses to date seem to be giving people in these games more credit than they deserve, and failing to always consider pot size when making a turn or river decision.

One bet to me is an obvious call but there was no guarantee SB wouldn't re-raise. Getting caught in the middle of a raising war is never a good place to be.

[T5off]

The flop cannot really have hit UTG if his playing standards are high. There is always the tiny danger of having set over set but that chance is too small to take into account. So your flop raise is obviously correct. The SB calling would worry me a little but maybe he calls with 2 overcards or a small pair or possibly with a flush draw.

The 8 on the turn would have helped an 88 and a 79, but otherwise?? So a raise on the turn is perfectly fine, I think.

On the river there's a flush possible, which doesn't look good for you. On the other hand, your set is hard to spot for your opponents, and they will not believe you would have a str8.

Although I changed my mind a few times while posting this, now I think you should call: you will lose this pot with some high probability, but the odds are absolutely there to make the call.

[WalnutFlush]

i agree; definitely call. most people don't think set, and if yours is beaten then pay 'em. but i'd say a majority of the time this hand is yours.

[T5off]

I don't think it's your pot a majority of the time, but still, the odds are there to call

[sthief09]

I've been seeing this a lot lately... people folding down huge hands on the river to show his opponents catching something crappy

big laydowns aren't moneymakes. even if you are right in your belief that you are behind, that doesn't mean you mad the right play. if someone won with a flush, you would've been right to fold this time, but I think in the long run you'd be wrong

[tripdad]

jefe,

u should have waited longer to post the results. i think you will have had more people tell you your laydown was o.k., which it was.

the way you were betting/raising, you're opponent(s) will nearly always have you beaten in this situation. you are only getting a little over 5 to 1 on your call with a possible disastrous re-raise by the SB, followed by cap from UTG.

even if not, will you win one in 5 times? i say no way/no how!

cheers!

[arkady]

Well, i was completely off and I think this is the kind of situation where having reads on opponents is essential. Who knew SB was a wacko!