When are you confident?

[Ben]

Hi everyone. Quick question:

After what period of time are you confident of your win rate (in $/hr)? I assume this would be some number of table-hours as opposed to real hours as I multi-table online.

Rephrased: After how many hours can I say with "confidence" that I win x$/hr?

Confidence is quoted because it is obviously subjective--I'm looking for opinions.

Also, are there some other numbers I should be looking at in interpreting my winnings? I use pokercharts.com but to be honest I don't know if my numbers look "good" or not.

Thanks,
Ben

[Ben]

Oops. I guess it's not a subjective concept.

I did a little digging in old posts and found:
"
Standard error works just like a standard deviation, i.e., your true EV will lie within +/- 1 standard errors of your hourly rate with 68% confidence, +/- 2 standard errors with 95% confidence, etc. A couple other ones you may want to know are that +/- 1.6 standard errors corresponds to 90% confidence, and +/- 1.3 standard errors corresponds to 80% confidence.

For example, if your SD is 10 bb for 1 hour, and you play for 400 hours, then the standard error of your hourly rate is 10/sqrt(400) = 0.5 bb/hr. So your hourly rate will be accuarate to within +/- 0.5 bb/hr with 68% confidence. It will be accuarate to within +/- 1 bb/hr with 95% confidence. "

I popped the numbers in a spreadsheet and everything seems to make sense.

Anything else I should know about these formualas?

-Ben