JJ: prudent or paranoid?

PokerBob · #1 03-31-2004, 10:01 AM

Party 1/2.
No reads of value.
Hero is button w/ JJ.
UTG +2 limps. mucks to hero, who 2 bets. Both blinds fold.

Flop. (2 players, 5.5 SB)). 2,6,9, rainbow.
UTG +2 checks. Hero bets. UTG +2 calls.
Turn (4.75BB), Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG +1 bets, hero folds.

Was this muck prudent or paranoid?

sthief09 · #2 03-31-2004, 10:34 AM

please use the hand converter. it makes it easier to see all possible combinations:
http://www.selachian.com/tools/bison...hconverter.cgi

I think this is a case of you trying to make an amazing laydown. there are many reasons for your opponent to bet here. he could have picked up a diamond draw, he could be trying to get you off AK, he could be clueless and betting his 9. at party 1/2 people do all kinds of crazy stuff for no reason at all

you only have to be >23% sure you're ahead, and 4% of the time you'll river a set. so basically you just have to win here 1 out of 5 times. I think you cover this and I don't think it's close

if you call the turn and he was bluffing, you won't have to call a river bet, because he'll check. this further pads your odds.

I'm calling this down, and if he checks the river I'm betting (betting may seem to be a contradiction of myself, but if I bet it's not required, so it can't be considered part of the price I need to call the turn).

PokerBob · #3 03-31-2004, 11:00 AM

Perhaps I am being too cute by tossing this hand, but in my experience 1/2 players at party aren't so sophisticated that they will bet into a pre-flop raiser after checking the flop in an effort to be sneaky. I hope that makes sense.

If he was betting his 9, I figure he'd do it on the flop, not the turn.

I think I have been going too far with hands that are great pre-flop and refusing to read the writing on the wall when I am clearly beat.

When the Q hit the turn, it scared me.

In this particulat case, the pot wasn't very big, so I dumped it, figuring I had only 2 outs.

I had also considered a raise on the turn, and then check to showdown on the river.

Alobar · #4 03-31-2004, 11:22 AM

horrible fold...I probably would have raised here