Fruit plate or Fur coat?

[pudley4]

Live 6/12 (Canterbury). Friday afternoon, a few tighties, a few loosies, no crazies yet.

EP limps, new tightish MP raises. Couple of loosies call (including button - he's too loose preflop, but decent postflop). SB calls. I call in BB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. EP calls.

6 to the flop for 12 sb

Flop:

J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to MP, he bets. LP calls, button raises. He likes to raise both made hands and draws. SB calls, I 3bet, EP folds, MP 4bets (cap is 5 bets). LP folds, button calls, SB folds, I call.

3 to the turn for 13 bb (after rake)

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, MP calls, button calls. 3 to the river for 16 BB

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, MP calls, button looks at me and says "I have to raise."

I raise/call/fold?

[PokerBob]

You haev to call and expect to be shown a set or AJ.

[schwza]

well, raising is wrong. i would call here, but i think that a lot of others will say to muck it. you're getting something like 20:1 and i think if MP had you beat he would have raised the turn. button could be T9 or a slowplayed (sort of) set, but i think it's worth the call for the huge pot.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
You haev to call and expect to be shown a set or AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree that you must call here (getting about 20:1), I find AJ pretty unlikely.

I'm going to guess button hit his straight on the river with T9.

A set (either on the flop or maybe even with 77) is a possibility, if slowplaying the turn is in his arsenal.

[Bob T.]

I usually make the crying call here, but that 'I have to raise', is pretty ominous.

My only question is, if you were going to lead the turn on a blank, why didn't you cap it on the flop?

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually make the crying call here, but that 'I have to raise', is pretty ominous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this, too. Is "I have to raise" an "I'm strong" statement or an "I'm weak" statement?

Tell-wise, at the low limits I've found river raises accompanied by "what the hell" or "let's gamble" type comments--basically, anything that "justifies" the raise--to generally mean very strong hands. You know, the whole "weak when strong" thing.

I'm just not sure what his "I have to raise" means. Is he acting weak or strong? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

If he's going to throw off tells, he could at least let us know what they mean! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[MRBAA]

He's got you beat here. Absolutely. Call and there will be one time in 10 you'll be wrong, win the pot, and this call will be hugely profitable.

I don't think I bet this river with multiple opponents, btw.

[Bob T.]

My experience has been, 'I have to raise' means something like, most people won't believe that I played this far, and sucked out this bad with this piece of cheese, but I did, and I did, so you have to pay, but I am apoligizing in advance by saying 'I have to raise'. The problem is, he might have made some real bad two pair, and you can beat that, so I usually make the crying call. Also, if my opponent is the kind to chase real far, with not much, I probably have a fairly good chance of winning the money back sometime in the near future.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Bob T.]

If you bet the river (especially at CP), you will get called by all kinds of one pair hands, sometimes there will even be overcallers.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Pudley,

You, and everybody who's responded, are overlooking the most important aspect of this hand. Don't even think or worry about these river situations until you get down your flop play. You have to bet this flop, Pudley. You absolutely MUST bet out on this flop. It's not even close. River situations that may cost or gain you small fraction of a big bet should not be your focus until you can learn the how's and why's of flop play, where you can lose or gain full big bets and also set yourself up for easier (or more difficult) decisions on later streets.

Talk to me,

GoT

GoT