How much to bet this river for value?

Ian J · #1 03-26-2004, 02:00 AM

Early in a SnG on Stars, my stack is about 1200 in the BB w/ KQs in hearts. 1 limper to me and I check.

Flop: Ts 8h 7s

I check and he bets only the BB (50) into a 150 pot. The turn is the Ace of hearts. Board Ah Ts 8h 7s. I now lead for 100 on a semi-bluff and he raises to 200. I call with my flush and straight draws.

The river is a Jack of diamonds, giving me the rocks. I contemplate a check raise, but I'd be an idiot if he didn't bet. With his stack around 2000 and mine about 1000, I bet 350 into the 625 chip pot. He called and I took it down.

Question: Should I have bet more on the river considering the (albeit small) amount of aggression he's shown up to this point?

Ian J · #2 03-26-2004, 07:03 PM

cferejohn · #3 03-26-2004, 08:30 PM

I think the bet was fine, but value bets are perhaps the most player-dependent of situations. Some players will see an all-in here as a sign of weakness and call you with a weak ace or even a jack.

Given his show of strength, it seems quite possible that he has 2 pair (78s, say) or a made straight (J9). If you think this player would call your all-in with 2 pair here, I'd go all-in.