Value Bets

[J.A.Sucker]

I played a hand last night that got me to thinking about thinking players. The game is 40-80...

A weak player limps in UTG, another tags along in MP, then it's rasied by the cutoff, and the SB calls, and I call in the BB with J9o. All the limpers call. 10 SB's in pot.

Flop is 7-8-3 rainbow. SB bets out. He's a decent player, and beats weak players. He also beats maniacs. However, people who mix up their play own him. He's a good player in good games, and a bad player in bad games. I have good results against him.

Anyway, I raise with my gut-shot and overcards. It was nice of the field to fold, and this made me happy.

The turn was a 2. SB checks, I bet. Go away, you flea! He calls. Dammit, flea!

The river is a J. SB checks. I bet. I think I have the best hand about 90% of the time here, but I didn't want him to call. Comments? Remember, I play with this player, and many of the others, quite often...

[astroglide]

i would love a call here. you probably have the best hand, and you get to show down defended crap / a raised gutshot.

[shemp]

So if he calls it's $80 bucks for about 2 seconds work -- or at least 90% of $80, which is, hrrmmm, lessee, i dunnoe, more than $50?

But you don't want him to see what you did? You could muck? It seems to me than if he calls with his 8 or whatever here, he confirms to himself that he had you until the river and you are a luck-bucket, and it doesn't hurt your Meta-Mojo, or whatever it is that concerns you. Maybe he'll even frown and say, "frickin river" -- that has to offset the information leakage.

[Ulysses]

Let's think about it slightly differently. SB has A3. Does Sucker want him to call?

[shemp]

I think I catch your drift -- it's been awhile since my probe, but isn't the last bet in 40/80 still 80?

I've had that same feeling many times. What else are you going to do if you want his money? You want to train him to fold to your river bets -- well, that's a bigger job than this, it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I suspect Sucker gets enough turn folds in this sequence from hands like A3 that he may well be better off not getting called and having to show his J9 here.

[shemp]

That train done left the station.

You guys want a lot. You want to get called on the turn and river by hands like A3o all the time when you can beat them, and you want them to fold on the turn when you trail them. Take his river bet, and after he whines, tell'm you put him on 96 and thought you were pushing the best hand. And you want to drag your pots without letting the table see your cards -- hey! So do I!

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I suspect Sucker gets enough turn folds in this sequence from hands like A3 that he may well be better off not getting called and having to show his J9 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
how would u play differently if you were SB here against Sucker? would you play any different from SB until river? Assuming SB did indeed have A3.

Kenny

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to get called on the turn and river by hands like A3o all the time when you can beat them, and you want them to fold on the turn when you trail them.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds just about right.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Just curious (and I'm not being a smartass this time), how would the answer to your question affect your play? It really shouldn't, correct?

So it's just a matter of which suggestion you're trying to send him via ESP, or fake tells I suppose.