TPTK+nut flush draw

PrayingMantis · #1 03-11-2004, 04:08 PM

33$ 1-table, we're last three. Stacks: 6200, 3300, 3400. I'm third. Blinds 100/200.

I hold A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG, and raise to 500, my standard. SB folds, BB (6200) calls. He's a pretty loose caller, and a little passive over-all.

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Edit: he checks.

I bet 800. He min-raises to 1600.

What's your move?

NotMitch · #2 03-11-2004, 04:30 PM

With T2000 left and T3500 in the pot I think all in is a good call. I think I ran some numbers on this the other day and offhand I think you are a favorite over and overpair (besides AA), and a a dog to a made flush or a set. Given that its possible you are ahead right now, and the pot size I think pushing is the play.

Bozeman · #3 03-11-2004, 04:32 PM

Well, it looks like you are drawing to only 7 outs twice (plus runner runner AT), or else he has redraws against your 9 outs. This gives you about 30-32% chance of winning. However, you are getting 3900:2000 odds on the rest of your money. It is marginally -EV against a made flush or trips, and most big stacks would do this with a few additional hands, so I would figure you need to play it. He might fold a few hands you are ahead of if you push, so I call. (The chance he will check a hand you are ahead of on the turn is miniscule, so this doesn't help you.)

If, however, 1) he will make this many raise with lots of hands and feel pot committed (esp. with a hand like Kd5s), I would push here to get maximum value
or
2) he has a flush or set 90% of the time, or almost this much and you are playing a lot better than these 2 players, I fold.

It doesn't look like you can make a big mistake here unless BB has put you on a bluff and thinks you will fold it to a min. raise,
Craig

BradleyT · #4 03-11-2004, 04:32 PM

He has KT and rivers a king calling your all in.

Oh wait, that's what happened to ME last time.

Bozeman · #5 03-11-2004, 04:33 PM

Well, it looks like you are drawing to only 7 outs twice (plus runner runner AT), or else he has redraws against your 9 outs. This gives you about 30-32% chance of winning. However, you are getting 3900:2000 odds on the rest of your money. It is marginally -EV against a made flush or trips, and most big stacks would do this with a few additional hands, so I would figure you need to play it. He might fold a few hands you are ahead of if you push, so I call. (The chance he will check a hand you are ahead of on the turn is miniscule, so this doesn't help you.)

If, however, 1) he will make this many raise with lots of hands and feel pot committed (esp. with a hand like Kd5s), I would push here to get maximum value
or
2) he has a flush or set 80% of the time, or almost this much and you are playing a lot better than these 2 players, I fold.

It doesn't look like you can make a big mistake here unless BB has put you on a bluff and thinks you will fold it to a min. raise,
Craig

PrayingMantis · #6 03-11-2004, 05:26 PM

Thanks for the replies.

I realised I'm getting about the right pot-odds to go on, even if he's with the made flush, although it's maybe somewhat -EV. However, I wasn't completely sure he isn't trying to push me out with TJ and one diamond or something. I understand, as Bozeman suggested, the possible advantage of calling here, if I suspect he'll fold a worse hand to a push. But I thought this player will call me, if I push, even if I beat him, as he was rather a loose caller.

I pushed and he called with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Yes, the implied-odds worked for him this time, calling my PF raise with this beautiful power-house.

None of my 7 outs, or my runner-runner FH hit, and my C plan (that is to hit the runners for quads T) didn't work as well.

So I busted.

PrayingMantis

CrisBrown · #7 03-11-2004, 05:41 PM

Hiya P.M.,

I haven't read the results yet, but I push here. You are even money with an overpair (except AA), and you have the nut draw (though perhaps with only 7 outs).

Edit: I read the results and other replies, and I'd have busted right with you. Sorry. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cris

ThaSaltCracka · #8 03-11-2004, 06:30 PM

question for ya'll...
I have noticed online players re-raising with made hands against the initial raiser, now for me this doesn't make that much sense, especially on the flop. Why re-raise someone when you have hit your hand? You know they are going to keep on betting for you, so why scare them away.

Now I have tried this type of play( betting strong with a made hand), and I have noticed that I have started to win a lot of small pots, and very few big ones.

I think I might try my old strategy of slow playing these hands with a preflop raiser, and see what happens.

But anyways, does this type of plaw by his opponent make any sense??? I have called a lot of these bets thinking they were representing draws or overcards only to find out I am being dominated. I am confused... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

CrisBrown · #9 03-11-2004, 06:42 PM

Hiya Salt,

[ QUOTE ]
I have noticed online players re-raising with made hands against the initial raiser, now for me this doesn't make that much sense, especially on the flop. Why re-raise someone when you have hit your hand? You know they are going to keep on betting for you, so why scare them away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doyle Brunson talks about this in Super Systems, which I was re-reading today to get my head cleared. If you've hit a hand against a pre-flop raiser, you want to bet into the raiser, because he's probably coing to come back over the top of you. At that point, he's probably going to be pot-committed, and you can bust him with your hit hand. If you check-call, he's likely to spot the trap and won't put any more into the pot.

Now, when you have position, reraising the raiser is more questionable. A smooth call may look like you've hit some tiny piece of the flop, and you're trying to look him up. And yes, he may keep betting into your made hand, and you can bust him that way.

A lot of it, though, comes down to the texture of the board. If there's a draw board and you don't have the nut hand, you usually want to protect the hand you do have. For example, a lot of players will raise on a suited Ace -- as a semi-steal -- and then bet again if they have a four-flush. If you've hit for two pair or better, I think you need to push hard here, and charge him to draw at that hand.

In short, I don't think there's any one correct way to play these. It really depends on your opponent (will he shut down if you smooth call?), the board (could he be drawing at a hand that will beat you?), your position (can you suck him into playing all of his chips on a second-best hand?), and so on.

Cris

triplc · #10 03-11-2004, 07:43 PM

Great hand post, PrayingMantis. My initial thought was to call, but given your stack would be down to 1200 with a call, I think your choices are push or fold. And that simply depends upon your read of the player.

Personally, I get really scared when someone minraises me. My history when I lead, get minraised, and push is one of unmitigated sorrow (for me anyway). That said, I'd probably have pushed and gone down with you. But I'm beginning to rethink the situations when I push all-in. I think being more selective in that regard may really help my game. This from the guy who pushes in with 78o...hmmm.

CCC