Nice River : KQs in LMP

[GuyOnTilt]

The table was great. Check that; it was perfect. I'm sitting in Seat 5 with my usual pyramid formation in front of me. The cards have been good, and I've been dominating the table for the last 3 hours, amassing a mountain of checks. I've definitely been tighter than usual preflop and very aggressive postflop, so I'm not seen as somebody to be pushed around right now. Seat 4 is a horribly loose player with a dark mustache who limps with any two suited, any medium Q, and most J's. He cold-calls with about the same. As a result of his loose mindset, he thinks most Aces and Kings are monsters as well as any two paint cards and raises them as such. The two players to my immediate left are the tightest at the table besides me, but still too loose preflop, and play straight-forward ABC postflop. The rest of the table is just plain bad. Donators abound. It's a friendly table and Seat 6 and I have been chatting it up. We're laughing at something or another as the cards are pitched out.

UTG limps, Seat 4 limps, and I raise with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] two off the Button. The CO 3-bets me, UTG calls, Seat 4 calls, I call. We're not laughing anymore. 4 to the flop for 13.5 SB's.

Flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

It's checked to the CO who bets. UTG folds, Seat 4 does what he does best, and I raise. The CO reraises, Seat 4 donates, I cap, and all call. Three serious faces see the turn together for 12.75 BB's.

Turn comes: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

Seat 4 checks and I bet. The CO takes a couple seconds before calling. Seat 4 finally surrenders and messily exposes the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the process. We're headsup for 14.75 BB's.

River comes: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img][6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]

How've I done so far and what's my play?

GoT

[cepstrum]

hi got -

Looks fine to me. Given that you're probably going to get called by ak, aq, and jj, you have a bet. you are sometimes going to be shown aa, kk, or qq. But obviously with only one way each to have these hands off the top, and abc's play not seeming consistent with any of those but maybe aa, it's not a big deal. Depending on how timid abc is, you may only get raised by aa.

And if he shows you a flush - which i would fervently hope is a royal - then you happily adjust your assessment of abc's preflop play.

Good Luck

cepstrum

[gonores]

Didn't you just post a hand just like this a few months ago? The Ace is the last card you need.

I don't know what hand he would 3-bet you with preflop and flop that you beat, especially if he is straightforward and you are not to be f-ed with. Unless you think he could 3bet you preflop with KQ, looks like a pretty easy check-fold to me.

Doug

[GuyOnTilt]

Didn't you just post a hand just like this a few months ago?

I don't think so...Did I? It felt new to me at the table when it happened last weekend...

GoT

[gonores]

OK, not exactly the same

There's no extra guy, it happened on the turn, and the flush draw didn't come, But it's close.

[GuyOnTilt]

Geez, my memory's really going down the tube. Getting old sucks. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

GoT

[El Dukie]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you're probably going to get called by ak, aq, and jj,

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that the river just killed his top two. He's now beat by AK or AQ. The only likely preflop 3-bet hands he can beat are JJ and TT.

Given that the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] was exposed, there's only one combination of AA left. One combination each of KK or QQ. (I think we can rule these out since he slowed down on the turn.) 4 combinations of AK. 4 combinations of AQ. 6 combinations each of JJ or TT. So mathematically JJ or TT are more likely (12-9) (Leaving out KK & QQ; I think we can also rule out KQs since he slowed down on the turn). But would he have stayed aggressive with those overcards on flop if he had JJ or TT? I don't think he has the flush; given that A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hit the river, I doubt he'd 3-bet preflop with a suited hand that didn't include an A or KQs. If he had the four-flush, I also don't think he'd hesitate before calling the turn. But it depends on your read of the player. I'd probably check-call, and expect to be shown AQ or AK, for the rivered Aces-up. Given the pot size, though, and the possibility of JJ or TT, I don't think I'd fold.

[AJo Go All In]

if he truly plays tight preflop and straightforward post-flop, you should check and fold.

but if you think there is a 1 in do-the-math chance that he got a little crazy with KJ or AJ or some such, then check and call.

[Nate tha' Great]

I don't know. Against a skilled opponent, check-fold might be the best option.

But I'll tell you this: if you don't respect your opponent that much, then I think bet-fold is a lot better than check-call. I don't think KQ is entirely outside of the realm of possibility *if he doesn't read hands well*. Of course KK and QQ are unlikely holdings from you (he'd have to put you on one of those hands to slow down) ... given the absence of a cap before the flop ... and that there'd be only two ways for you to hold one of those hands. But some opponents don't think about things as rationally as we do. I do think that, if he held another KQ, there's a chance that he'd lay down on the river, and that's a coup for you.

I also think there's some chance that he'd lay down AQ. Of course you don't have a flush, but he doesn't either, and you're counting on your opponent to behave irrationally. Online, might be a different story.

IOW, I think that the very small chance that he'd lay down a better hand, combined with the very small chance that you're still ahead of him, combined with your good table image, combined with the pot size, provide you with just enough equity to bet right the [censored] into him, employ whatever psychological tactic you can think of to represent The Nuts, and pray for the best.

[cosmo kramer]

You know your opponents well and you say this guy is semi-tight. Looking at if from here, I'd say that he can't have a hand that you beat (except an overplayed AJ). Therefore, I'd check-fold. However, at the table I couldn't check-fold with that pot. He's ABC, so I'd bet and fold to a raise.