Another Flop overcard post

[JDErickson]

Recently I have noticed a lot more opponents playing A anything or K anything. Maybe I'm just noticing it more but it seems the standard play at 2/4 Party.

Due to this I've been rethinking how I play KK-99.

Normally I'll raise PF and then take another stab at it on flop even if the overcard A or K flops. A lot of the time you will get called down and lose your KK-99 to these A anything players.

I'm wondering how much EV you would give up if you just ck folded your QQ-99 if an A or K falls on flop and ck folding your KK if an A flops?

Jim

[CPA]

Good question.....I was about to post a hand with the same question. I have a feeling the answer we will get is "it depends.

In my hand, I had QQ and 3 bet Pre flop. A King came on the flop and I was bet into. I folded because according to HPFAP, you are almost always beaten when you show strength pre flop and are bet into in this situation (especially from an early position bet).

My question is does the HPFAP advice apply to the low limit games. I think it does ??? (In my hand, I folded a winning hand but I don't want to be result oriented).

Maybe a good approach would be to bet out on the flop, and if called, check fold from there. I just think this is one of those hands where the read on the player(s) you are up against is crucial.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a good approach would be to bet out on the flop, and if called, check fold from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem with that is you're going to get called no matter what. The impossible part is knowing whether you're ahead.

I wish someone would come out with a rule of thumb, like "against 5 people and an overcard ace flops, you're likely to be beat 75% of the time." Unfortunately, every game is different, so this type of thing isn't possible.

I wonder if we could all pool Poker Tracker results together showing how everyone does with KK, QQ, JJ against n opponents when an ace flopes (or in the case of queens, a king or an ace). It might not even be -EV to check and fold if there are 5 or 6 others. I'm always tempted to do the aggressive thing, but unfortunately aggressive is at its best when it forces opponents to respond. If an opponent doesn't raise without the nuts, you will have a hard time getting any information.

I think these situations are easily the trickiest, very similar to holding middle pair.

[Yeknom58]

I think making this an automatic play is a pretty bad idea. You should be looking at the texture of the flop rather than simply looking for an overcard to your PP.

Lets say you have KK and the flop comes As 9c 2d and you bet into 3 players and all 3 call you had better believe that you might be againsts an Ace. But if the flop were more draw friendly like AsJdTh, As 8s 3c, or AsQh4s. Many times your getting called with gutshots, flush draws, Middle pairs (when the pair is a Q or J).