Results question - where and what to play

[TimM]

I don't see any easy way of asking this without putting up some numbers, so here goes.

Paradise:
2/4 - 3719 hands - 4.45 BB/100 - 16.5 SD/100
3/6 - 1740 hands - 3.74 BB/100 - 13.6 SD/100

Party:
2/4 - 3243 hands - 4.20 BB/100 - 16.2 SD/100
3/6 - 4834 hands - 0.87 BB/100 - 17.0 SD/100

(Two tabling most of the time on all)

I guess these numbers aren't very significant yet, since if I leave out my first day of play on Party (when I got hurt a lot by not making the right adjustments for the looseness), the numbers are

3/6 - 4605 hands - 1.81 BB/100 - 16.7 SD/100

Just one day and 200 hands make a huge difference (and it was not that big of a dollar loss), and I also took a big hit over a few day period just after a cashout which forced me to go to 2/4 for a while, so that could be skewing my 3/6 results a lot too.

If any significance can be applied to these numbers at all, Paradise 3/6 looks like the place I should be playing. But it's pretty hard to get on two 3/6 tables there, and I am always seeing the same players over and over. The play is clearly fishier on Party, and I prefer for some reason to play with more players who have not seen how I play before. So do these numbers mean anything yet? Should I just keep plugging away on Party 3/6 as I have been, or what?

[Bob T.]

Your right, you don't have enough numbers to remotely approach a statistically significant sample. You have only about 50 hours in each sample, and you would want several times that before you started to draw conclusions about your long term win rate at these sites/games.

You do have one disturbing number here though, and that is, that your SD seems fairly high and leads me to believe that you are probably playing a lot of hands. For online games, it should probably be in the range of 13-14 big bets per hour. Your high standard deviation, will also mean that it will take longer for your win rate to stabilize. This also makes it likely that the numbers that you have for your win rate, are just an artifact of the highly volatile game that you are playing.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Tosh]

You need to play a hell of a lot more hands before your numbers are particularly relevant.

[TimM]

Those SD's are BB/100, not BB/hr. Per hour they are all under 14. My highest VP$IP is 21% at Party 3/6 (I play more suited connectors and small pairs early because I usually can expect lots of callers). The tables that give me fits are the ones with a few crazy raisers. I need to get some discipline here to play fewer hands early when I know almost every hand is getting raised pre-flop.

The only reason I'm really questioning anything is because I'm experiencing a lot of the same things as IllinyRyRy (sometimes at the same table) as far as the massive suckouts and the fruitlessness of trying to bet players off a pot. It just makes for a wild ride and I guess we all have to learn to deal with that.

[Bob T.]

per 100 instead of per hour. Sorry. Bad reading on my part.