AKo, turn decision

Rico Suave · #1 03-05-2004, 02:22 PM

UTG+2 is a bit loose, but does not seem get too out of line post flop. No real read on sb.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, CO folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero ?????

What is my action here? This may seem easy, but I am uncertain if should call or raise here, and, more importantly, why?

--Rico

stoxtrader · #2 03-05-2004, 02:48 PM

I would raise here and charge underpairs (that often will call two as easily as one), more to draw to their 5 outer. If you can take down the pot right now, you are happy to do so, but that's unlikely. A backdoor flush draw same thing. SB could have a slowplayed set, but can't know that yet and betting in this situation 1000 times is +EV IMO. Your hand is best in this situation 90% of the time I think.

lostinthought · #3 03-05-2004, 03:23 PM

My intuitive reaction is to raise given all the information. I've seen people on party 2/4 bet Ax in UTG+2 situation, although your read on him seems to indicate otherwise. However, he could have something like Ad5d.
If I were UTG+2 and had aces up in this situation, I would be tempted to check-raise on the turn. So the fact he bets out seem to indicate to me that he has an ace, and thinks his kicker is good, or isn't conviced you have the K.
If you raise, the put the SB to a decision, and his/her reaction will define their hand more clearly.. right now I am at a loss with the SB... I've seen some awful playing at 2/4.. I think the SB is chasing..

yes, raise

ropey · #4 03-05-2004, 04:21 PM

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Your hand is best in this situation 90% of the time I think.

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I disagree.

Against a decent player, you are behind two pair a large majority of the time. Raising in my opinion is a very bad idea. You need to improve to win, you are only charging yourself to draw. In addition, I'd prefer to have the third player in the pot if possible.

-ropey

Trix · #5 03-05-2004, 04:44 PM

This looks like he is afraid that you check through with JJ-KK, if he had a hand that could beat TPTK, he would most likely checkraise as he will trap SB that way.
Either he has TP weak kicker or he is a greedy fish who wants to 3Bet.
Even if he just made 2pair with A3, you still have many outs.
I dont think you can flatcall and give SB 10:1 if he calls, cuz in that case he would be correct to call with any 3,6,T or some freak gutshot.

I´m raising.

Rico Suave · #6 03-05-2004, 04:59 PM

Hey Ropey:

When UTG+2 did his stop and go by betting into me on the turn, I thougtht, while there is a chance I am still ahead, I was most likely behind to aces up. I figured I had enough of outs to call, but I was not sure if I should spend the xtra bb to lose the sb.

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In addition, I'd prefer to have the third player in the pot if possible.

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Why do you want him hanging around? ...protected pot?

--Rico

ropey · #7 03-05-2004, 05:26 PM

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but I was not sure if I should spend the xtra bb to lose the sb.

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Let me ask you this...lets assume you are behind aces up, which is a reasonable assumption...or lets take it even further and say you are behind two pair 10's up.

If you need to improve to win, why do you care if the small is hanging around? How many cards are going to help you and the small blind simultaneously? Unless the small blind is holding on to pocket kings, or he called two cold with a backdoor flush draw, there isn't a card in the deck that can help both you and the small blind.

Is it worth an extra big bet to improve your chances of winning by this small percentage? Also, you are risking being reraised by UTG+2.

-ropey

ropey · #8 03-05-2004, 05:34 PM

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I dont think you can flatcall and give SB 10:1 if he calls, cuz in that case he would be correct to call with any 3,6,T or some freak gutshot.

I´m raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Even if he just made 2pair with A3, you still have many outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is any 3, 6, T, or 9 (gutshot) going to improve your hand enough to beat the two pair that UTG+2 likely has?

So why do you care if the small blind hangs around? Or rather, why don't you want the small blinds money in the pot?

-ropey

Trix · #9 03-05-2004, 05:59 PM

because if I´m ahead of UTG I dont want to give SB correct odds to outdraw me.

ropey · #10 03-05-2004, 06:03 PM

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because if I´m ahead of UTG I dont want to give SB correct odds to outdraw me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is assumuming you are behind UTG...If you think you are ahead, than you should raise...however, I believe you are behind here a very large percentage of the time.

I don't think players respect this enough. When somebody bets back into you after just calling you the round before, you should just consider this a reraise.