Full house and I know (I think) I am a loser

[DonWaade]

UB 3/6. Fairly tight fame, tho no good reads on anyone. Hero is BB. UTG+2 open raises, folded to CO who cold calls and I see Ks 10s. I call. Probably my first mistake (of many). Three to the flop

Flop:
A K 10r (no spades)

Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, CO three bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 caps. All call Three to the turn

Turn
10d
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, CO calls, I call. Three to the River

River:
7h

Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, CO folds. . .

Results later, comments appreciated on all streets

[JDErickson]

I'd cap the Turn and call the river bet.

I wouldn't assume you are beat. If you are so be it.

Jim

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn
10d
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, CO calls, I call. Three to the River

River:
7h

Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, CO folds. . .


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why players do this...either reraise the turn or check the river.

You bet the flop...got raised and called.
You bet the turn...got raised and called.
You bet the river...what do you think your opponent is going to do here?

If you think you have the best hand, reraise the turn. If you don't, it is pure insanity to bet the river.

-ropey

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't assume you are beat. If you are so be it.


[/ QUOTE ]
That's what I was thinking... There's only 2 K's left, the odds of him having both are pretty slim... You know he's not holding 2 10's.. That hand with that board wins so often, you can't afford not bet everywhere.. According to my calculator:

[KS,TS] [TH,KD,AC,TD,7H]:
loses to AA (3 ways)
loses to AT (3 ways)
loses to KK (1 ways)
Full House: T's over K's
beats 981 of 990 possible hands
loses to 7 of 990 possible hands
ties 2 of 990 possible hands
99.090909090909090909% win rate

[DonWaade]

I called and UTG+2 had bullets. CO said he had Big Slick. . . .

[Haupt_234]

The only reasonable hand that you can expect to beat from a sane, tight raising UTG+2 opponent who raises every chance he gets is AK in this situation.

Hands he would raise with UTG+2 (most likely since he's a tight player): AA KK QQ AK


Hands UTG+2 would raise and re-raise with on the flop/turn/river: AA KK AK

I think you have less than a 1/3 chance of taking down this pot, your chances decreasing with the cold-calling CO in the pot.

I think that laying down this hand would have been very tough, but very smart as well.

Haupt_234

[asdf1234]

I don't think it's fair to use this type of analysis in this situation. Yes, if the opponent is holding a random hand, you're good 99% of the time, but given the action, you can reduce his possible holdings dramatically. The only realistic hands the opponent has are AK, AA, KK, or AT.
6 ways for AK
3 ways for AA
1 way for KK
3 ways for AT

So, from realistic hands, he's slightly worse than even money to be good here, but the action leans towards AA or KK in my opinion.

[asdf1234]

I don't understand your river bet at all. The 7 didn't change anything. On the turn, if you think he has AK, reraise, if you think he has AA or KK, call down or fold (that would be a big laydown).

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why players do this...either reraise the turn or check the river.

You bet the flop...got raised and called.
You bet the turn...got raised and called.
You bet the river...what do you think your opponent is going to do here?

If you think you have the best hand, reraise the turn. If you don't, it is pure insanity to bet the river.

-ropey

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this completely. Especially withe the CO hanging around probably drawing to a flush that is no good.