Huge $$ (not chip) leak ... bubble play

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

I have a HUGE real money leak. I'm ahead for the month, but this is consistently costing me win opportunities, and that leak is race situations at the bubble. Example:

$55 two-table SNG, five left (top four pay) and I'm the chip leader with ~5800, but very narrowly over 2nd, 3rd, and 4th who are all around 5000. Blinds are 200/400+25 antes. I have TT on the button. I make it 1200. SB (with about 4300) moves all-in. BB calls. And ... like an idiot ... I call.

SB has AJo. BB has 86s. An Ace falls at the river and I'm gutted. All-in on T7s next hand, hit for two pair, and the board makes a straight to split. All-in on AJ next hand, and called by 55 ... no help and I'm gone.

*sigh*

I really need to just stay out of race situations at the bubble. I could've laid down that hand and been virtually tied with the remaining players at around 4600, with plenty of chips to be dangerous and wait for good spots. Instead, like I've done WAY too many times lately, I tried to push a narrow edge, and got spanked.

Oh well. Live and learn.

Cris

[GoSox]

Join the club, I think this is a very common leak. People argue this point with me, but I think near the bubble your first priority is making the money. Especially if you are the chip leader. Once you're in the money, then you focus on winning first. Obviously this addresses the common leak you described. But, there is a second reason that used to be my major leak.

After playing for almost an hour to eliminate all those other players to make the money, many people expect the winner to be decided in the next five minutes and play accordingly. People change the play that got them there and start doing stupid things to win in the next ten hands.

I often am the short stack heading into the money and win or take first just by patience.

[William]

Before going to bed tonight, write a 1000 times:

IF I RAISE WITH A MEDIUM PAIR AND GOT RERAISED AND THERE IS AT LEAST A CALLER; MY MEDIUM PAIR IS NO GOOD AND I MUST FOLD MY HAND.

Please paste and copy the lines to this forum so we can all see that you have made your homework [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[CrisBrown]

Hiya William,

ummmmm ... I'm gonna run out of paper coz there are about five other things I gotta do the same thing with. But yes, you're right, and this is one I really have to work on. My bubble play has cost me probably three or four money chances this week, and while that doesn't seem like a lot, it can be the difference between a winning week and a break-even week.

Thanks for your help ... and you really have helped my game. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cris

[chesspain]

This seems like a fairly similar situation to what I posted about earlier today:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=14&fpart=

[William]

Can't see the similarity, you have to make a UTG decision, Cris is facing a reraise and a caller. Two very different situations.
(ok, you have both TT, that's the best I can concede [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[CrisBrown]

Hi William and chesspain,

Yes, William, that's exactly the difference. chesspain could push (with a short stack and a good hand) UTG, and hope to take the blinds and get back in it. I'd raised and was reraised by a stack that could take a big chunk out of me, so I was better off laying it down.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

Well, I just came through a bubble and did pretty well by applying a somewhat surprising principle from Sklansky's TPFAP: never raise with a hand where you'll mind a reraise.

I say "somewhat surprising" because it has an interesting twist. You raise on hands where you WANT a reraise (big pairs, AK, etc., depending on situation), but also on trash hands where you don't mind a reraise because it's easy to throw your hand away. As Sklansky puts it: "So again, do not raise in NLHE, especially in tournaments, if there is a reasonable chance that a reraise will make you throw up."

So rather than stealing with marginal hands where I wasn't going to like folding to a reraise, I started stealing with really junk hands. If I got reraised, I hemmed and hawed and thought and pondered, and mucked. If I got called and the trashy hand hit, I played it like AA. And of course I was also raising with the premium hands, so when I got the reraise that my opponents were used to seeing me fold to, I could set them all in with confidence.

It feels very weird raising on 200/400+25 blinds/antes with J5o, but again, if someone reraises ... it's easy to muck. And a lot of the time, they'll just fold rather than tangle with a large stack ... so I picked up a lot of small pots on the junky hands, keeping me alive and gaining on blinds, while I was waiting for the real monsters.

Anyway ... this is something I'm going to have to think a lot about, and experiment with some in my play. I can't really complain about the month's results (I've done very well), but I am working hard with PokerTracker and the great advice I get here ... trying to plug those leaks that cost me money.

Thanks to all.

Cris

[chesspain]

Cris,

If you were going to be the first one into the pot (other than the blinds), then wouldn't it have been better to either just fold or push all-in with your TT, especially if you did not want to face a reraise? If you had pushed all-in, it would have been much more difficult for the SB to call you with AJo, especially since he was not so short-stacked that he would need to be making a desparation call, especially if he respects the Gap concept. And once SB folds, you really can't be upset if BB is going to call heads-up with crap like 86s.

Although I was in third position out of four, in comparison to your nearly four way tie for first out of five, a similarity between our hands is that we both openraised the pot with TT, although I did not give my opponents a chance to reraise me. I simply pushed in, knowing that I had a better than 50% chance of doubling up if called.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya chesspain,

[ QUOTE ]
If you were going to be the first one into the pot (other than the blinds), then wouldn't it have been better to either just fold or push all-in with your TT, especially if you did not want to face a reraise? If you had pushed all-in, it would have been much more difficult for the SB to call you with AJo, especially since he was not so short-stacked that he would need to be making a desparation call, especially if he respects the Gap concept. And once SB folds, you really can't be upset if BB is going to call heads-up with crap like 86s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think it would clearly be a mistake for me, as a narrow chip leader, on the bubble, to push in with TT. I'm going to raise with the hand -- I'd like to get the blinds -- but on the bubble it's a hand I need to lay down vs. an all-in reraise from a stack that can cripple me. In that situation, against good players, I'm probably only a coin-flip favorite, and I may be a huge underdog (to a bigger pair). I'd rather lose 3xBB here than lose the tournament.

Cris