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#1
02-09-2004, 02:21 PM
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Bubble Hand
121 player, limit-tournament at the Orleans ($53 +20 rebuy with $5 bounties). 13 players remaining top 10 get paid. Blinds are $500/1000. I've got about $5,700 and can probably fold my way into the money.
I open raise from EP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and get cold-called by a big-stack in MP. Everyone else folds. Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] My opponent has been playing a lot of hands and has been effectively using her stack of chips to bully the smaller stacks out of pots. I've already seen her cold call a raise from another short stack with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] so I can't put her on any hand. She will fold to a bet if the flop completely missed her, but will probably raise my bet if she has any piece of this flop. If I try to check she will bet it either here or on the turn. Do I bet this flop? 
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#2
02-09-2004, 03:21 PM
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Re: Bubble Hand
With the blinds at $500-$1,000 and your stack at $5700, a decent raise (up to $2,500) only leaves you with $3200, not much with those blinds coming around. To not leave yourself with a tough decision like the one you descibe, I would have just moved in preflop and make someone (especially the chip leader to pay for that lone ace she may or may not hold. You are most definately a favorite over every hand...might as well put your money in if you want to play the hand.
If, of course you are trying to make the money...you could just fold. But if not, all in preflop is the play. Fsuplayer ps I would have to bet at that flop, $1500 sounds good w/o being too weak.
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#3
02-09-2004, 03:43 PM
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Re: Bubble Hand
You are either way ahead, with her having no more than 5 outs, or you are way behind, with about 2 outs. You have T3700 left, and there is T5500 in the pot. Given your description of her, you are certainly going to win here often enough to justify the risk of being all-in and eliminated. Since we're going to assume your read is dead on, in my mind there is no way you're going to fold this hand, so the question is whether you should bet or check-call.
I vote check-call. You say she'll fold if she missed completely, but will bluff either the flop or turn if you check. Since you're only giving her a small chance of catching up those times she is behind, I say check and induce the bluff. Whatever you do, don't check-call the flop, and then chicken out and check-fold the turn. That would be the worst of all possible plays. Check-fold if limping into the money is really important to you, but check-call is better. The only way check-folding or betting out is the higher EV play is if your description of her is mistaken. Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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