Don't You Know What I Have?!

[ML4L]

Hey all,

What a great hand to talk about! I hope that some of the big guns (Ray, Fossilman, Ulysses, etc.) give their takes...

Party $1/$2 ($100) NLHE. There is one guy (BB) playing about 50% of his hands and playing them poorly, so the table is just basically taking turns stealing this guy's money. Most players seem to be decent (maybe a little loose preflop); nobody getting too out of line. I had just dragged a big pot on the previous hand and have $218 in front of me. Now, the hand...

Two limpers to me, and I raise to $11 on the button with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB (seems OK; has me covered) calls, BB folds (darn!), MP (seems good; has $180) calls, LP (no read; has $100) calls. $46 in the pot, 4 to the flop, which comes:

3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB leads out for $7, MP raises to $25, I reraise to $65, SB calls, MP folds. $201 in the pot, heads-up. Turn comes:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets $45, I call. $291 in the pot. River comes:

4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB puts me all-in for my last $97. $386 in the pot.

Call or fold, and why? What about the other streets?

ML4L

[jrobb83]

I'm definately not a big gun, but I'll take a shot here.

I would definately call here. You're getting about 4-1 on the call, and I really don't see many hands that SB could have that beat you here. Most people would re-raise with AA or KK, so those hands are possible but not that likely. Would he call you pf with a hand that included a 3? It's possible, I guess, but a pretty weak call from someone you say is ok. The question is what could he have and lead out with a severe underbet on the flop, call a large raise and re-raise, then lead out for another underbet on the turn? The only hands that beat you are AA, KK, 33, 3x, 45, or 66. I think its more likely that he has an overpair that you can beat, possibly a flush draw. There are many more hands out there that you can beat than can beat you. Call.

[SpaceAce]

Without trying to guess your opponent's cards and without trying to justify why he might be playing this hand or that hand, here is an observation: When someone calls a fat raise on the flop then leads back into you on the turn, they usually have a big hand. He's not afraid of those threes. Assuming that he is not afraid of the threes because he knows you wouldn't be raising a three, ask yourself this: why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

SpaceAce

[spacemonkey]

I think you are probably behind here, though the last 4 was probably irrelevant. His play is a bit strange though as he called a raise and a reraise, implying he should have a monster, like a 3 in hand, or better. The natural play on the turn would be to checkraise or checkcall but he lead out instead, which seems a bit weak. Does he normally play his draws aggressively from early position?

Having said that you are getting great pot odds to call, in case he has an overpair worse than your or ?

One question is how does he see you - aggressive? tight? someone who can lay down a big hand? Or is he someone who doesn't make such observations?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

The obvious answer to this question is that he has one himself, or has a 3. His large call on the flop implies he has a big hand. But if he just calls with his big hand, it means he intends to trap you with it, and if he were trying to trap you with it, why wouldn't he try to check-raise you on the turn? He could be hoping you play back at him by betting a small amount, true. But I would need a pretty good read on my opponent to give him credit for a big hand here. Would you really fold here? There's a lot of $$ in the pot already.

Ouch, my newbie brain hurts from all of this thinking! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

The obvious answer to this question is that he has one himself, or has a 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point exactly although I would add in the remote possibilities of 22 and 66. As for whether or not he would check the turn with a monster, I wouldn't put too much of my money on the line behind "He can't have a monster or he would have checked."

SpaceAce

[gavrilo]

and if he were trying to trap you with it, why wouldn't he try to check-raise you on the turn?

I think you made a good point here but fail to realize it. So many people assume that trapping means checking to you in hopes you bet and checkraising. I think this is clearly wrong.
He could very well have a huge hand and be betting it because of many reasons, he is scared that the player will check behind or he knows that many people like to trap and think that the only way to play a monster is by checkraising.
It's confusing to a player who thinks like because they say to themselves, well if he had a monster, he would obvioiusly go for the checkraise... think outside the box.
Another point to consider is this, if he reraises the flop, he is knocking out the other player probably, he doesn't want this, so he calls on the flop, but bad for him, other player folds, so his apparent trapping of another player in the hand backfired, thus he bets the turn.

Enough ramble.

Actually 1 more point i forgot to mention is, sometimes players aren't capable of checkraising monster hands, they just bet.

[symphonic]

I say he missed his club flush draw and is trying to buy the pot. Either that or he has a pair of 6's or 4's.

[theBruiser500]

I think you should fold on the turn. He led out on the flop then called a significant reraise. Then leading out into you on the turn (and this isn't a $2, or $4 lead out, it's enough to say he's pot committed). Some people might say it's weak to fold here, and maybe if I played with the same people all the time I'd call here so they know I can't be bluffed, but online I think you can fold this because people make the obvious play and this play signifies a whole lot of strength to me.

Sounds like A3, or 22, or 45. I wouldn't be surprised if he had 45 here seeing as he led out $7 on the flop, that's the type of bet someone would make with 45. Then calling your reraise with 45 is iffy, but he might have figured he was getting good odds (especially if MP calls too). Note that if he does have 45, he hits it on the turn and there's a good chance that he'd lead out with 45 there. Also, if he had a flush draw, I know I advocate folding the turn so you wouldn't see a river bet, but it would take a mighty courageous man to bluff 1/4 the pot or whatever with a busted flush draw when you show a lot of strength and are pot committed (I doubt he has a flush draw).

danny

[NLfool]

wow I know I may be getting different opinions and NL is so stylistic that any style can almost win if played well, but you made a very minimal raise preflop and as such any hand is game.

Most likely you are beat unless this guy is a really huge moron if you had made a bigger raise preflop this hand is much easier to play. If you are limping which an $11 raise may as well be in these internet games, 5x the blinds is nothing, you've got to be able to let this go. I've done the same with AA and you just gotta let it go if the flop comes coordinated enough.

I play this way differently if I'm a big stack vs a smallish stack. If I've got a big stack I make a decent raise and maybe someone with 99 or such calls because with QQ or JJ an overcard comes enough so that your hand becomes a tricky to play. If you're a small stack I try to get a bunch of callers with a min raise like 4 or 5x blinds so I gamble and get a stack like the big boys