Lots of outs VS an all in

[josie_wales]

Hey all,

About 4 orbits or so into a SnG with two players out, I check in the BB with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and three of us see the flop of:

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

With no raises preflop, I try to represent the 'A' with a semi-bluff and bet pot (@ T250)

MP2 Folds, and MP3 goes all in for T900

Your move and why?

[LetsRock]

Unless my stack is about 4 or 5 times his all-in, I'm folding and even with that big a stack I might fold as well.

I think it's a pretty solid poker tournament axiom not to risk your tourney life on a draw.

In reality, you only have one out that can give you a solid feeling. Your straight and flush draws could easily already be beat (A2,22). If it's not, your opponent has almost as many outs as you to improve. Your flush (should it hit) is also the lowest flush so you could get beat by a bigger flush.

I like the semi-bluff, but this is one you have to let go.

[NotMitch]

Fold, don't risk your whole stack chaing a draw when you don't even know if any of your outs are good. He could have A2 for the boat.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You don't say how big your stack is.

The pot is offering you 2.15 - 1. If he doesn't have A2, you're actually a very slight favorite here (50.9% assuming his kicker is a 4 or 5). Assuming it isn't, you have 11 outs twice if his kicker isn't a 3. In that case you're a bit better than a 6-5 dog.

I don't think he has the made boat often enough to make this call close. I call here.

[josie_wales]

Thanks guys.

Stacks were about even, he had me covered by maybe T50.

I did call, and he flips 2-2

Lesson learned

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Well, at least you had one out [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[CrisBrown]

Hi Josie,

Someone else already said this, but in reality you don't have lots of outs. You have one (3c) that you can really rely on. If he has A2, 22, or Ax and the board pairs, you lose even if you hit a flush or straight. If he has any two clubs, you lose even if you hit a flush or a straight. You have one SECURE out and a bunch of other outs that may only get you a (very expensive) second best hand.

Time to lay this one down....

Cris

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't say how big your stack is.

The pot is offering you 2.15 - 1. If he doesn't have A2, you're actually a very slight favorite here (50.9% assuming his kicker is a 4 or 5). Assuming it isn't, you have 11 outs twice if his kicker isn't a 3. In that case you're a bit better than a 6-5 dog.

I don't think he has the made boat often enough to make this call close. I call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he has has Kx[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? And is this a play someone would make with the nut flush draw on a scary board?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Perhaps I didn't think it through, though I seldom fear flush over flush.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

OK, I'll be purely analytical (and may refute myself in doing so) Considering the range of hands, our hero is facing:

1 out - 9 (A2 - 6, 22 - 3)
3 outs - 10 (KcXc)
12 outs - 144 (A4, A5 - 6 each)
8 outs - 8 (A3)
11 outs - 48 (every other Ax except AK)

Doing the math, that comes out to 8.9 outs on the average.

8.9 outs twice to improve and win .3463 or 1.88 - 1

He's getting 2.15 - 1 from the pot. That's on the border of being only a small edge. Absent of a specific read, I still say the call is a high enough +EV to make in the long run, but I admit it's a close call.