Bad Beat Jackpots

[Oregon Bear]

I asked this question to Sklansky around Christmas time and haven't received an answer yet...Here goes---Locally we have a bad beat pot where as both hole cards must play in both hands. The qualifier starts at A's full of Kings beatened and goes down every two weeks.Consider one table at 30 hands an hour what are the probabilities of the bad beat being hit at A's full of kings and what percentage does this change everytime the qualifier drops to the next level (A's full of queens).Also, what is the increase in probability everytime you add another table to the mix at the same rate of hands per hour.Given that the qualifier can drop from A's full of kings to A's full of dueces, the lowest it can go how much easier is to hit at dueces??????

[Lost Wages]

Consider one table at 30 hands an hour what are the probabilities of the bad beat being hit at A's full of kings

Depends. You need to know the probability that UTG+1 will call a raise with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] after UTG raises with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and then will call a bet on a flop of A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so that he can catch his running 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Lost Wages

[Oregon Bear]

ASSUMING THAT IS ALWAYS TRUE OR NEVER TRUE IT SHOULDN'T EFFECT THE CHANCES OF THE BAD BEAT HITTING WHEN THE QUALIFIER GOES DOWN.THAT PROBABILITY SHOULD BE INDEPENDANT.

[Lost Wages]

[ QUOTE ]
ASSUMING THAT IS ALWAYS TRUE OR NEVER TRUE IT SHOULDN'T EFFECT THE CHANCES OF THE BAD BEAT HITTING WHEN THE QUALIFIER GOES DOWN.THAT PROBABILITY SHOULD BE INDEPENDANT.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

you can't determine the probability of a bad beat jackpot occuring without knowing how each hand will be played. on a table where 10 players see every flop and take every hand to a 10 way showdown there will be more jackpots than on a table where only two players see a flop. in fact, on a table that never goes to a showdown there will be exactly zero jackpots.

lost wages

[Oregon Bear]

THE QUESTION IS:WHAT IS THE CHANGE IN PROBABILITY AS THE QUALIFIERS GO DOWN?????????NOT THE PROBABILITY OF IT HITTING IN THE FIRST PLACE....WILL SOME ONE ELSE WITH A GREATER UNDERSTANDING OF THE QUESTION PLEASE RESPOND..MAYBE THE QUESTION IS TOO DIFFICULT TO ANSWER AS SKLANSKY NEVER DID RESPOND----BEAR

[Lost Wages]

[ QUOTE ]
...what are the probabilities of the bad beat being hit at A's full of kings <font color="red">AND</font> what percentage does this change everytime the qualifier drops to the next level (A's full of queens)?

[/ QUOTE ]

actually you asked two questions. i have already tried to explain to you that it is impossible to determine the probability of a jackpot occuring. that should suggest to you that it is equally impossible to determine the difference in probabilities between two different jackpots.

lost wages

[N4CER1]

Hey lost wages....Why don't you try to answer questions you know something about....instead of talking about something you have no clue about.....It makes you look like such a Genuis! LOL

This is a math question, and the % of hitting a bad beat when the qualifier goes down has to change....It has to...

You just have no clue!!

Can someone that understands the Question answer this........Thanks so much..................

And Lost wages, please, please ......Go back to the Micro Limit section........and stay out of the tough questions..........