Playing in wild loose games

At low-limit stud, I worked out a strategy that worked, but I had problems applying it to Hold-em, because I wasn't quite sure about he value of certain starting hands. Complicating the matter is that I play tournaments, and this strategy is incorrect in tournaments. So after playing a tournament, I forget my low-limit strategy and start playing in cash games like I play in tournaments.


I would like everyone's imput on this. I'm not going to give everything away. I just want to describe the approach in general. It is this.


(1) Forget raising with big pairs, unless you really think people will drop.


(2) Raise with suited connectors.


(3) Play for the draw


In short, Big pairs lose so much value, you're better off not playing them agressively.


Comments, please.

(1) Forget raising with big pairs, unless you really think people will drop.




Serious question: I'm relatively new to all this compared to many of the posters, so forgive me if I'm missing something, but: if you have AA or KK (or even QQ) why do you want people to drop?

There is a big difference between winning the most pots and winning the most money. Your objective should be to win the most money and that is why you should raise with your big pairs. If you start keeping statistics about the hands you play you'll see just how much money AA and KK wins for you. No other hands even comes close. Forget about big slick, it's not a tenth as profitable as aces or kings. But you can't fall in love with them and never drop.


So just keep raising. If they call they made a mistake and that is what you want. As more people enter the pot the less likely it is that you'll win it but the bigger it will be when you do. Even if the win rate will drop for aces and kings the increased pot size will more then make up for it.


Sincerely, Andreas

Very clear. Big pairs play well against only one or two opponents. Otherwise, the combined odds of one of three or more players drawing out on you makes you big pair a long term loser

Very clear. Big pairs play well against only one or two opponents. Otherwise, the combined odds of one of three or more players drawing out on you makes you big pair a long term loser




I can see this with (again, maybe) QQ and JJ, (anything TT or below, I wouldn't classify as a "big pair") but AA and KK?


I'll take AA and KK jammed up preflop against a full table all night...and "not the favorite" does not equate to "long term loser". I don't have the figures in front of me, but I seem to recall AA winning 30% of the time against 9 random hands (I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong) played to the river?


If everyone wants to make a mistake and call or reraise a raise with AA/KK, that should be a GOOD thing, assuming you're the one with AA/KK.

I've found that it doesn't work. When you raise with AA or KK and get many callers, the pot gets large enough so that it is no longer a mistake for them to call you all the way to the river.

thank you for your comment. Seems that ones variance increases in these types of games. I'm not sure if the numbers really pan out as the loses tend to mount quickly and your odds of winning do go down substancially as the number of players in the pot increases.

I've found that it doesn't work. When you raise with AA or KK and get many callers, the pot gets large enough so that it is no longer a mistake for them to call you all the way to the river.


but all the money that makes it correct for them to draw they put in the pot with way the worst of it.


also, many times your AA hand is similar to a really strong draw(you are not favored to win the hand), where only 20 of the river cards that can drop will win for you. even then, you are only a 1.3:1 underdog and with 2 opponents or more you should be putting in as many bets as possible on the turn. if you have 4 opponents, you are putting in 20% of the money, but 44% of that money is yours. i dont see any problem with this situation.


its about profit, not winning this pot. maximize your expectation.

This system is so grossly misguided that it is difficult to accept that even you believe in it. If you do, you are going to expeditiously lose your entire bankroll.


You are intentionally not raising for value with your best possible hands (AA,KK,QQ). No other hands will make more money in a pot contested by 10 players. Raise for VALUE. Raise for VALUE. Raise for VALUE. You do not want anybody to fold when you raise with your big pairs. You want all 9 opponents to call you all the way to the river every time you hold these hands. It doesn't matter that AA will lose 70% of the time 10-handed game of "showdown". What matters is that the money you make from the 30% of the time you win with AA in this type of game will be vastly greater than the money you lose the other 70% of the time. Just do some very simple math.


Note: This is VERY SIMPLIFIED and is only being used as an example of how awesome a hand AA is in a 10 handed pot.


You play 10 hands of "showdown" holding AA. You win the pot 3 times. You lose 7 times.


Each time you lose, it costs you 3.5 big bets (2 small bets pre-flop because you raised for VALUE, 1 small bet on the flop, 1 big bet on the turn, 1 big bet on the river). In sum, you have lost 24.5 big bets with AA in these 7 hands.


Each time you win, you pull in a pot of 31.5 big bets. 31.5 is calculated by taking 3.5 (from above) and multiplying in by your 9 opponents (9 * 3.5 = 31.5). In sum, you have won 94.5 big bets with AA in these 3 hands.


94.5 - 24.5 is a PROFIT of 70 big bets with AA. AA is WITHOUT ANY DOUBT the best possible hand to play in a 10-handed pot. The second best hand is KK. The third best hand is QQ. Suited connectors are WAY BEHIND.


You have taken a well known concept and completely distorted it. The concept is that pairs go down in relative value in a multi-way pots while drawing hands like suited connectors go up in relative value. The concept is true. But it doesn't mean that AA,KK,QQ, and the other big pairs are no longer the best hands and are not worthy of pre-flop raises, re-raises, and capped raises.


What the concept means is the gap between big pairs and drawing hands like suited connectors is not as substantial in a multi-way pot as it is in a short-handed pot. But the gap is definitely there. Big pairs are the best hands to hold in both short-handed pots and multi-way pots.


Without trying to create another math example, suited connectors are not automatically worthy of a raise. Certainly AKs is worthy of a raise. But 54s shouldn't even be played from early position and raising is out of the question. Big suited connectors like KQs, QJs, and JTs are very valuable hands in these multi-way pots and are worthy of a raise especially if you've got good position. But these hands still trail far behind the big pairs.


Play for the draw? Not in Hold'em. Drawing to the best hand is very applicable to stud but it's a money-losing way to play Hold'em.


You've got everything backwards. You are so wrong it's sad.

Just to give you an indication as to how aces do against different number of opponents I'll give some illustrative results from cold simulations. Against random hands aces wins:


1 Opponent win% 85, EV = 0.85*2 - 1 = 0.70

3 Opponents win% 64, EV = 0.64*4 - 1 = 1.56

9 Opponents win% 31, EV = 0.31*10 - 1 = 2.10


So aces wins 3 times the money (not the pots, big difference) against 9 opponents then against 1 opponent. Obviously, cold simulations are not 100% accurate but they give a strong indication. Just for curiosity, let's compare the loss of EV when you are not raising with aces to the loss of EV when you always fold AKs (which obviously would be a mistake against 9 people, right?). Against 9 opponents holding random cards:


AKs, win% 22, EVfold - EVcall = 0 - (0.22*10 - 1) = -1.2

AA, win% 31, EVcall - EVraise = (0.31*10*1 - 1) - (0.31*10*2 - 2) = -2.1


In other words, it's almost twice as costly NOT to raise with aces as it is to always fold AKs against 9 random opponents. If you wish to reduce variance it's way better to always fold AKs than it is to stop raising with aces.


If you're losing money with aces your postflop play needs SERIOUS work. You have such a huge edge preflop that it would be nearly impossible for aces to be long term losers.


Sincerely, Andreas