Horrible flop for AA

[muzungu]

Simple question:

Party $100 NL- I've got $115, BB has a great big stack of $500 or so.

AA on the button. I limper to me, I make it $10, BB min-raises to $10, I make it $40 (Q1: good amount here?), he calls.

Flop: the absolutely atrocious K8Q. BB sets me almost all-in for $65 (pot $80 at the time).

Thought for 29 of my allotted 30 seconds, then folded.

Sound about right?

-muz

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Sound about right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[muzungu]

Really? Why not? Maybe I'm giving him too much credit, but KK and QQ seem like the 2 hands that match his preflop play. Care to elaborate, or do you prefer making 1-word pronouncements?

-muz

[Garland]

Hi Muzungu,

If I were the "normal" BB, and I hit a set with KK or QQ (which I don't think he has because he didn't push back before the flop), I'd check hoping to trap you into betting. Also if he had KQ, I'd do the same thing.

He's betting on the K (or Q), but doesn't have anything else but a good/decent kicker perhaps. You didn't mention whether the board made a flush possible, but it's also totally possible he's on a straight or flush draw.

CALL HIS BET. YOU HAVE HIM (for now).

Garland

[Guy McSucker]

I don't think I would fold this on the flop. Then again, I keep getting in trouble in situations like these.

I agree with another poster who says that KK and QQ are not likely here: first of all, there's every chance he would have set you in preflop with those hands; second, he'd be very likely to check with a hand that strong. If he's thinking, he must think you have AK or a pair, so you would almost surely bet this flop with more hands than you would call his bet with.

He shouldn't have KQ for that preflop action, but you never know... If he does, you have outs. K8, Q8 and 88 seem remote, too.

In fact, whatever he's holding, I don't like his play; this makes it impossible for me to decide what he's got, so given the pot odds here and the fact that I'm holding aces, I call.

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

PS...

I should add that if you always call in this situation, you will still make a long-term profit, because if he's in front, he made a serious mistake preflop, and if you're in front, you're in front.

If you always fold, you're giving up far too much and probably making a long term loss.

Guy.

[thetman]

I think AK or AQ is likely. If he has KK, QQ or KQ, he's a fool for not letting you bet his hand.

[curtisvill]

I would have gone all-in pre-flop when BB re-raised. You have the best hand, make him pay.

John

[felson]

First, I assume your opponent made it 20 preflop? If so, then between 40 or 50 sounds reasonable. In any case, there's no way I make this laydown. Statistically, he is as likely to have AK as he is to have KK/QQ, and the way he played it looks more like AK also. With KK there's also a good chance he would have gone all in preflop.

As Guy pointed out, if you simply made it 40 preflop, then closed your eyes and committed yourself to pushing in on the flop no matter what comes, you'd make a profit here.

Then again, I guess I'm a fan of pushing AA allin on the flop no matter (just posted something on this topic).

[Acesover8s]

If you really think he must have KK or QQ here than why only raise $40? Push it in, its partypoker, they'll call with anything.

Example, saw this hand on Party yesterday. Folded to cutoff who minraises. Button moves all in for $70 or so. Cutoff who barely has this covered quickly calls. Button shows pocket 55. Cutoff has K3 of hearts. 2 more fives on the flop ended the dream.