Lay down this draw?

6-12 at the Mirage. I'm not happy with the action I am getting with my real hands, so for a variance play, I limp UTG with 5-6s. Rock Solid (RS) player to my left limps, Tight Aggressive Local (TAL) limps, cutoff and Nice Lady on the button (NL) limp, binds call 7 see the flop.


Flop: 9s 8d 4s


Not awful...gutshot and a spade draw. Checked to me, I bet and all hell breaks loose.....RS raises, TAL makes it 3 bets, NL calls(!) folded to me.....


Question #1 and the core question of this hand: Do you call, fold or raise here?


I call, RS calls. 4 see the turn.


Turn: 9s 8d 4s (3c)


A decent card for me, giving me 3 outs to the nuts. Checked to TAL who bets, all call.


Question #2: What now?


Thoughts (a lot of them) and results later........

"I'm not happy with the action I am getting with my real hands, so for a variance play, I limp UTG with 5-6s. "


If so, I would prefer the HPFAP play, and raise with it.


When 6 people join you, I dont think you have to complain about the lack of action.


I agree with your flop bet. When it comes back to you, you're getting 2:16. With NL cold calling 3 I would be afraid he's on a flushdraw also. And if so, he probably has a better draw. But I think 1:8 is still enough to call here. Disadavantage is that you're not closing the betting. I think you shouldnt raise here; you cannot be sure all your outs are good to make it a raise for value.


On the turn I agree with your call. You now have 4 outs to the nuts, 4 outs to a likely good straight, and 9 outs to a flush which may not be good (especially 8s, 3s), and you're getting 1:10,5.


I dont really understand your 2nd question.


On the river you either hit or not. A bluff on the river certainly wouldnt win you the pot IMO. If a flush comes, I will be close, but I think I would check-call. If your straight comes I would bet out. The rest I would fold (pairing will not be good).


Regards

"Flop: 9s 8d 4s


Not awful...gutshot and a spade draw. Checked to me, I bet and all hell breaks loose.....RS raises, TAL makes it 3 bets, NL calls(!) folded to me..... "


Right here, the following thoughts go through my head....RS has either A-8s, 10-J, 10-10 or JJ. TAL has a set, almost for certain. He would not try and narrow the field with a drawing hand like that. Outside chance he has 8-9. NL most likely has a big spade draw. She can lay down a big pair, but will never ever lay down flush draws.


Therefore, I think I am supposed to fold here. My spades are likely no good, and if RS has 10-J, or 10-10 then my gutshot is either no good or subject to a redraw. Add in the fact that TAL likely has a set, then any card pairing the board has me dead in the water. What card could I possibly want here?? Certainly not a spade. Maybe a 7, but even then I am not certain that I'm not up against a bigger straight. For 2 bets I think I should have folded here.


On the turn, the 3 is a great card for me obviously, but I can realistically still only count on the 3 non spade 2's to get me the cheese. I think a fold here would have been correct also.


The river came an offsuit ace. TAL bet, everyone folded and he showed 4-4 for a flopped set of 4s. NL was certainly on a spade draw from her reaction and RS couldn't call the river with a huge pot. To me that rules out the 10-10 and JJ holdings, as well as A-8s. In all probability he DID have J-10 and I was drawing dead to runner runner offsuit 3-2.


I think that this is a case where what looks like a great flop demands a fold because of the action that takes place.


Is this sound analysis, or irrationally worrying about the worst case scenario?


Clark

I dont think RS has JT. First I remember you say he's rock solid. Therefore he certainly wouldnt limp JTo in EP and probably wont JTs. Rocks fold that hand upfront, and I do often also (and dont regard myself as a rock). Also if he's solid I think he's more likely to raise TT and JJ preflop, but limping could be possible. A8s is likely, but I also would consider A9 (suited, but not spades). This is all talking with the info till the flop. His raise on the flop looks more like a protecting raise, so I see A9 (and TT, JJ) more likely than A8s.


I agree that TAL has a made hand that (with this kind of flop) needs to be played fast. A set is certainly possible, but also 98.


NL certainly could have a big spade draw, but also wouldnt rule out JT, 76 (not too likely, but possible if she cant lay down (fairly) big draws).


So on the flop I think your 3 outs to the straight are most likely good (7s probably not), and small possibility your flushdraw is good. You're getting 1:8. Upon reflection (I was too quick in writing my post, sorry) I think a fold is in order; mainly because I overlooked the fact the 7s is most likely not good. With a 4 outer you should call IMO due to the implied odds.


On the turn you get 1:10,5. Your 3 outs are surely good. I still think your 3 7's are most likely good. IMO you cant fold here.


So I agree with your flop analyses (I only wouldnt give too much weight to the possible presence of JT), but I dont agree with your turn analyses (due to the fact that I wouldnt give too much weight to the possible presence of JT). You was correct to be rationally worried :-)


Regards

well, if you were feeling capricious enough (tilting) to play 5-6s UTG, then I wouldn't get too fine on the later analysis - either check the flop and decide whether to proceed depending on the action - or, if you bet it because of the odds, then back your earlier judgement and go to the river.