Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-18-2004, 10:49 AM
RacersEdge RacersEdge is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 37
Default Odds After the Flop

Calculating pot odds relative to the odds of making a hand is pretty straightforward after the river card . My question is after the flop.

Let's say you have 4 to a flush after the flop. So at this point the odds of making the flush over the next 2 cards are about 2-1. The odds off making the flush on the rier are about 4-1.

Now at this point, strictly speaking, what pot odds are being compared to what hand odds to make the decision on playing?

I would always call - maybe raise in this particular scenario - but I got to thinking about the exact comaprisons here. Is it just your required bet on the flop relative to pot odds needs to be better than 2-1? It seems it would be more accurate to use your implied pot odds and your future bets to make the decision, because the 2-1 is relative to the the next 2 cards.

What's the exact math here?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-18-2004, 06:58 PM
Warik Warik is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 436
Default Re: Odds After the Flop

[ QUOTE ]
It seems it would be more accurate to use your implied pot odds and your future bets to make the decision, because the 2-1 is relative to the the next 2 cards.

What's the exact math here?

[/ QUOTE ]

To my understanding if you are going to calculate based on the next card, which has ~4:1 odds of being your flush card, there needs to be 4x whatever you're going to bet in the pot. On the flop the bet is 1SB and I can't imagine there not being at least 4SB in the pot postflop.

If you're going to use 2:1 by the river you need to use implied odds, meaning that you are going to have to put in at least 1 SB + 1 BB + 1BB = 2.5BB, so there would have to be at least 5BB by the time the river comes.

Compare this to the runner-runner 23:1 flush shot. 1 SB + 1BB + 1BB = 2.5BB. 2.5BB x 23 = 57.5BB in the pot by the river - good luck.

Resident experts please correct me if need be.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.