Pot Commitment (long)

Hi gang,


Taking a very, very simplified view of pot commitment, I have concluded the following 2 observations that you may or may not agree with:


1) You do not want to be put in a position where you have a marginal made/drawing hand that can be beaten and are putting in maximum $$$ to see if that hand will hold up. For example, the ignorant end of a straight with 3 consecutive cards and a flush draw on board.


2) You do want to be in a position where you are charging others the maximum $$$ when you have the very best hand/mortal nuts.


Give me a gold star for this wonderful observation (not). #1 up there is kind of a no brainer for the successful player and very easy to take for granted.


#2 is where the point of this post is heading. I think that most of you will agree that there is a certain "art" to extracting those maximum $$$ from your opponents. This is especially true if the board is highly coordinated and you hold the absolute mortal nutz. How can you do this without giving yourself away?


The hand in question is a 4-8 Hold Em game 9 handed. The texture of the game was loose-aggressive, especially when a player made a good hand. I am in the BB with red KK. Everyone limps in to the button who raises. The button guy (BG) is a fairly knowledgeable player who knows the value of a good hand multiway. He'd raise with anything from a medium pair (8s and up) or a good suited drawing hand (QJ or better) in this situation and plays extremely well post-flop. SB comes along and I flat call in the BB. Everyone else comes along for another bet.


Is there anyone here who would advocate a 3-bet from the BB? Here's where the concept of pot commitment comes in... if I 3 bet here the pot will be at the very least 7 handed considering my other opponents. They are of the type "in for a penny in for a pound" mode and will cold-call any raise with $$ already committed. Another consideration is that the button (or anybody else) will cap the betting and we'll have a "see everyone at the river" scenario where you can either win a boatload or lose most/all of what you've worked so hard for all night. In this situation, I really wanted to leave myself an out in case the flop was unfavorable and capitalize later if the flop was safe/favorable. This no doubt would be the pot of the night regardless... I held my breath.


The flop is perfect: KKT with 2 clubs. A pretty good flop for 9 players. Everyone has got to have a piece of this and they ain't going nowhere.


SB checks, I check (with the intention of doing God knows what). I seriously do not have the first clue of what I'm going to possibly do, my mind went blank. I don't have to wait long for the fireworks to begin. UTG bets out, he's been fairly shrewd and aggressive betting his draws which is what I put him on. He's raised by the guy next to him who can't wait to get his chips in. Cold calls all the way to BG who 3 bets. He's just given his hand away to me... he's got pocket TT for the flopped full house. He knows better than to call, much less raise, with any other holding given this board. He'd fold pocket QQ here with all this action and I've seen him do it. We lose the SB and I flat call 3 bets. UTG caps it off. We all call.


The turn brings a red A and an "oooooh" comes from the table and rail. For the first time I look up at the jackpot board and see about $50k up for grabs. Uh oh... Everybody's hand just got a whole bunch better with that card. I check again. UTG bets out again, gets raised, everyone cold calls to button who 3 bets again. I cold call 3 and UTG caps it again. We lose a MP player and 7 of us call the 4 bets. Is everyone committed yet? I planned to wake up and bet out on the river no matter what hit.


The pot was so huge that I couldn't even see the river card (sitting in the 3 seat), I had to ask the dealer. The river was 8 of clubs, perfect. I bet out, got raised by UTG, who was reraised by the next player. We lost 1 player who looked for about 3 minutes at his AQ before deciding to muck. The button just cold-called the 3 bet this time. I capped and got overcalled by all 5 players.


An MP player turned over his A9 of clubs for the nut flush followed by UTG who had QJ of clubs and got tied on. The cutoff I believe showed QJ offsuit but I'm not sure. The button sighed and showed TT for his flopped full house. Then I turned over my pocket KK and everyone except the button went ballistic. I didn't see the other hand mucked.


I was lectured extensively by UTG who told me I should thank my lucky stars that he didn't catch his royal/straight flush card to beat me. He was one of those grumpy old tight men who's been playing poker for the last 400 years and thinks he's God. After about the 50th "Why didn't you have the balls to bet your own hand?" I looked at him and said "Look Jackass, if you catch and beat me, I probably kiss you because you just put $25k in my pocket for the Jackpot". The table and all the rail started to laugh hysterically whereupon he got up and left. I'm told he hasn't been back since. The game broke up soon after that.


BG caught up with me about an hour later in the bar and sat down next to me. Before he even said a word a big smile was on his face and his hand was extended to me. I shook his hand and finally became acquainted with him on a first name basis. We went thru the actual play on the hand and told me that he became very suspicious of my holding on the turn when I checked and called 3 bets. He said that's why he only flat-called the 3 bets on the river hoping he could maybe save a bet on the river just in case because he was "pot committed". When he asked why I didn't 3 bet preflop, I told him that pot commitment was precisely what I was trying to avoid in this situation. It just happened that the flop came perfect to beat him.


That's the good news. The bad news is that I gave it all back when I decided to take my first stab at $20-$40 hold em (the lowest limit medium game going). I didn't have a chance to scout that game (mistake #1)before I played but got a quick lesson when I committed to AK suited vs a local pro who limped UTG with AA and just flat-called my raise (I'm on the button). He check-called the flop when the case A fell and check-raised the turn. The turn ended up costing me 4 bets because I reraised (duh) with one pair and the nut flush draw. The river brought my flush card but paired the board. He bet, I raised, he reraised I called (triple duh) and showed me Aces full. How's that for irony? Let's see that's 40 + 40 + 160 + 120... yeah that pretty much gives that pot back.


Hope everyone enjoyed this post. Sorry it's so long but I hope these examples got my point across. Fire away.


Mike

Mike -


Wow...what a hand! It's very, very rare that you flop top quads while half the players like or LOVE the flop (TT flops a full house and is drawing dead to a single card?) and are willing to pay capped rounds to stick around. I'm amazed that a few of those hands paid you off until the river. AQ...sticking around to catch a gutshot straight in the face of flush cards and potential full houses? He should know catching an A is no good with the board paired and that much action. Hell, everyone raising and calling on the flop can't be drawing to LESSER hands. The guy with QJo did flop an open-ender, but he should have mucked it much earlier, IMO. He should have asked himself "why is one solid player raising and one smooth calling?" May be just me, but alarm bells would be going off in my head that the straight's not going to be good, and it can easily be beaten. The guy with QcJc has to be nervous with that many callers that the nut flush draw (A high) is out there....if he suspects so, one of his "straight flush" outs is gone, and he's drawing to a single card in the deck...the 9c (which happened to be in the nut flush drawer's hand.) So he's dead, even though he doesn't know it. And you're right...you'd actually want him to hit it if there's a bad beat jackpot going! I don't think you shoulda called him "jackass," but that's my opinion. The planets were truly aligned to smile on you that hand =)


Anyways, back to my original thought. The concept of "pot commitment" is simply fallacious. It doesn't matter whose money is in the pot, whether it's a lot of your money or a lot of your opponent's money...it's the pot's money, and it's no longer yours. When players say "I had to call...I had a lot of money in the pot," or "I was committed to all that money I put in the pot," I just agree with them while thinking "too bad you can't pull it out if you lose." If I know I'm beaten, I FOLD and wait for better chances, regardless of how much I've shoved into the middle.


You're right about both of your observations. Most (all?) good LL Hold'em players will NOT put themselves into position #1 (as some of your opponents did in the first hand example.)


Position #2 is one we'd all like to be in, but how can you do that and disguise your hand at the same time? I would argue that...it depends (the almighty poker situation answer.) I remember one hand described on here where the flop came up all of one rank, say all 7's. The guy holding the case 7 bet out immediately...and another player said "well we know HE doesn't have the 7, because anyone with the 7 will slowplay it!" One guy had a high pocket pair that suddenly filled up...and the guy with the 7 just kept betting. Another hand on here was among three players. The flop came up 7 3 3 rainbow, and two of the players got into a raising war...with the guy in the middle just calling and calling. It was obvious the two raisers each had a 3 in their hands...but it was equally obvious the caller had 77 for the full (what could he possibly be drawing to?) So it depends.


When you have those mortal nuts, you do not want to hem and haw and say "well, I guess I'll call." Typical tell - acting weak when you're strong. Better players will pick up on this and back off. Sometimes you can just let players do the betting for you (worked wonders in this situation.) However, you could also have bet it as if you had a single King, which means bet it hard "to protect yourself against all the drawing hands out there." All your drawing hands will stick around, and of course the flopped full will too...probably smiling to himself about how he's got the single K dead in the water. If you're in early position, this may not work as well because you may scare out a bunch of weak drawing hands.


I think your check on the flop was good, and if it was a single bet when it came around, you could have checkraised to reprsent a single King (no one will put you on quads, esp. since you smoothcalled preflop...another move I agree with.) Since it was 3-bet when it came around, you could smooth call and represent a draw because a lot of players like this flop and are going to bet it for you all the way. When the flush card hit, you correctly bet out to represent the flush. The nut flush and the full house aren't afraid of you, and they'll happily raise. Great play. Too bad you went to the $20-$40 table and dumped it on one hand (bad bad bad idea.)

oops....made a mistake on the post...the guy with TT has no outs to beat quad Kings. I made this comment while thinking about a similar hand that happened at our local pot limit table. The flop came down J T T, and two players got into a raising war until one went all in for about $15,000. He turned over JJ for the flopped full. The other guy turned over TT...and the JJ was drawing to a single card (which he didn't get.)

(nt)

So you are saying you don't want to raise because you don't want people in there drawing to their 3 or 5 out type hands?


If people want to get committed to a pot that I am more than likely to win, I have no problems letting them do that. I don't like your reasoning here at all and I'm not sure what it has to do with this particular hand. Are you saying you want QJo to fold against your KK? You want A9s to fold against your KK? I think you are a bit caught up with the "win pots" mentality rather than the "win money" mentality. If you raise and everyone gets "committed", you will win bigger pots. If you don't raise and people miss, you may win the pot, but it will be a lot smaller (and you will win most of the pots in this situation). Against the specific hands you see (AQ, TT, A9s, QJs, QJo), you will win almost 53% of the time. You want all these hands to call 3 bets preflop. I would be especially likely to pop it given that with that many people in the hand, a lot of the aces are probably busy, and its less likely for one of them to appear on the flop.


I think your concept speaks to scared play and I don't like it at all.

I love your check and call preflop. LOVE IT. I don't think pot committment has anything tho do with my reasoning, though. Your cowboys are almost without a doubt the best hand going in, but with that many players in there against you, they lose some value. I would have played it exactly the same way. If you don't catch enough of the flop and are facing tons of action, you're gone with minimal harm done. OR you could catch a monster and have all the other players in there doing your work for you. It was perfect. If you jumped in on the earlier (and cheaper) rounds of betting, you may have slowed the action down, assuming they weren't total idiots. That some called all the way to the river with a straight draw indicates that they were. I think that in late position with that many callers, smooth calling is the right play. I can lay down Kings and Aces in the face of lots of betting into a scary board. Face down, of course. I think the hand played itself with a huge assist from the other players. The money's going into the pot anyway, so why let the others in on the fact that you have a big hand? If you're in early position here, then of course raise and reraise, but I think you get way less action later. I sat in a 3-6 game once and watched a good friend, who had no clue, play every hand to the river, then fold. On his all in hand he said, barely audibly, "I'm in this far, so what the hell." He'd been pinged and ponged along the whole way, then flushed his last few bucks down the hold'em toilet bowl. Is that being pot committed? Or is it just blatant stupidity? I vote for the latter. In his 15 minute, $80 loss, I didn't manage to take a single buck off of him. Goddamitt. He left the table muttering under his breath and people started giggling and asking me if I knew him. I thought I'd done a better job of pretending I didn't.

How does KK lose value when there are a lot of players in? It loses some chance of winning the pot, but it certainly increases the value of the pots you win (which should still be the majority).


When I hear lose value, I expect that in the long run, it is less profitable to play. I think KK vs 7 opponents is, in the long term, much more profitable than KK vs 1 opponent. Certainly the variance will be higher, but the VALUE is still better vs seven.

I would be drooling at the chance to play these cards against 7 opponents. In the BB with little chance of driving anybody out with another raise, I think that calling and seeing what the flop brings is a better play than screaming out to the table "YO, big pair, right here." When the flop hits your King's you can check and raise, or if there's enough action, you can smooth call and keep them disguised. I don't think the play was timid. What I was driving at with my post was that the Kings play better against fewer opponents. Maybe the term "lose value" was misused, but I thought the hand was played well. It was smart play IMO.

Why do you want to drive out opponents when you have KK and they have hands like TT or QJ? You want their money in there!


The poster originally was claiming he didn't want to raise because he was afraid that if he did, the pot would get too big for people to fold (if I understood him correctly). So, even if you announce "Big pair here!", people are (allegedly) still going to be calling all the way on whatever.


You are still not getting the main idea, which is very simple: when you have the best of it, GET THE MONEY IN. Your KK is the best of it. GET THE MONEY IN.


I thought the whole post was not that useful; he didn't raise so that people woulnd't feel tied to the pot, but it was a 5 way showdown? People felt pretty tied to the pot it would appear to me.


I like tying people to pots where they have little or no chance of winning. I will never be convinced that it is correct to not raise with AA or KK preflop in LL holdem. NEVER. Kings win a higher percentage of pots against fewer opponents is certainly true, but it wins more MONEY against more opponents.


David

David,


I do agree with your concept that KK does not "lose value" against many opponents. KK will always be KK, the second best starting hand in hold em... preflop.


I do not disagree with the fact that the math and statistics show that KK will win a 9 handed pot a little more than 30% of the time against random hands good and bad. The mathematical data for this is irrefutable. I do understand that in the "long run" you are technically making $$$ every time you put in that extra bet with KK.


Part of my point is echoed by Ripdog... why attach a big neon sign to your hand saying "Bigguns here" when you are out of position? Furthermore, these guys are coming regardless of whether its 2 bets, 3 bets, or 4 bets. Why not just flat call for deception purposes later?


Most of my point goes along the lines of why possibly trap yourself preflop to going all the way? Since the flop largely defines your hand, and with 9 players, somebody is going to hit the flop good. It's a mathematical certainty. That somebody might not be you with KK.


With everybody in for 2 bets, a bet on the flop is getting 16-1 odds. If preflop is capped then people are getting 24-1 odds. In this situation, you know as well as I do that people could be in there chasing with any gutshot or backdoor drawing opportunity because the odds are there. With KK, I'm getting odds to call bets all the way.


The math doesn't lie and I'm not disputing that. However, I do believe that some caution is necessary in these huge pots to prevent yourself from falling into pot commitment trap #1 in my original post. There have to be more considerations to the play other than "the math says I make $$$ in the long run... therefore I must 3 bet to be correct." It just doesn't work that way in real life. The closest analogy I can draw to that is a college professor using a 10 year old paradigm to try to explain a "real world" situation that is much more complicated than the model structure.


As for the considerations how about these for example:


1) How am I doing in the current session? At that time I had played about 3 hours and was up $25. This hand could have easily gone the other way with any other flop and I end up down $30-$40. Now instead of cruising along... I have to work another 5-6 hours average to make up for that. How about if I'm down a rack at the time? No way I 3-bet. If I'm up a rack or so, then I probably 3-bet with 95% certainty. I'd see this as an opportunity to really make a big score.


2) Deception. People know I raise and/or 3 bet with KK so why announce it multiway?


3) Playing skills. With the exception of the button (BG), I can say that I could outplay everyone else postflop with regularity.


Hope this gives you a little more insight into what I was thinking during the hand. Look forward to your response as usual, David.


Mike