AA Laydown, correct or weak/tight?

jasonHoldEm · #1 01-10-2004, 02:02 AM

Party 2/4

I'm UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raise. Good player in LMP calls, button calls, BB calls (BB is typical low limit chaser).

FLOP: K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, good player raises, button folds, BB calls two cold, I three-bet, good player and BB both call.

TURN (8.75 BB): K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, good player raises, BB calls two again, I fold...

---

I think betting the turn was the correct thing to do. Good player would have auto-bet the scare card, by betting into him I know where I stand. While my two outs are good (and I'm probably getting enough implied/pot odds for a call) there's enough doubt in my mind they aren't live for me to fold here...in other words I'm pretty sure one or both of them are in my opponents' hands. Interested what you guys think...I'll post what they had in a second.

Peace,
Jason

jasonHoldEm · #2 01-10-2004, 02:06 AM

River was a brick, check, bet, call.

Good player had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and BB had J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

If LMP wasn't a good player do you play the hand differently?

J

GuyOnTilt · #3 01-10-2004, 04:54 AM

You played the hand well. Good job. Your only error is in your thinking with this statement:

While my two outs are good (and I'm probably getting enough implied/pot odds for a call) there's enough doubt in my mind they aren't live for me to fold here...in other words I'm pretty sure one or both of them are in my opponents' hands.

First, your implied odds aren't good enough to call the turn. They're not even close. Let just look at the best case scenario. Since there's a 4 bet cap on Party, your maximum implied odds on the river give you 8 BB's. You're getting 13.5:1 on your turn call on a 2-outer, a 22:1 shot. So 22 times you'll lose 1 BB for a net of -22 BB's. One time, you'll gain 13.5 BB's plus your max of 8 on the river. That's a net of +21.5 BB's. So even if you somehow know that your opponents will cap the river with you if the ace comes, you still can't profitably call. In reality, your implied odds are obvious not even close to that high, so your call certainly can't be correct on the turn if you don't think your hand is good, which is doesn't look like it is. You could argue that there's a very small chance that your hand is still in the lead which makes up for your lack of implied odds, but if you call the turn, then you're calling a river blank, so you're losing not one, but 2 BB's when you're behind, which more than negates the small fraction of the time you're ahead, since your opponent will most likely check through on the river if that's the case.

Second, you have no reason to believe that both your outs aren't clean here. Your thought process really shouldn't even be going this far, because it doesn't matter whether they're clean or not. It should be clear that you have a fold either way. But if the pot was much, much larger and you found yourself looking at proper odds to call with a 2-outer, you should definitely call. The BB is either on a draw or has a mediocre K, neither of which should make you think he has an Ace. The good player looks to have a K, and you shouldn't put him on AK since he just called PF. There's no reasonable reason to think that both your outs are not clean here. Obviously some of the time they'll be in your opponents' hands, but that percentage is so low that as far as the mental math you'll be using in this situation, give yourself a full 2 outs.

Anyways, those are my thoughts. I hope they help you in some way. I'm going to look at the results now.

Again, well-played hand. Keep working on the thought process though.

GoT

kiddo · #4 01-10-2004, 06:59 AM

Good post, I agree. You played it fine, unlucky turn, better bet out and an easy fold when you are raised.

Not folding in situations like this is a classic misstake made by most beginners and loose players. Overplaying pocketpairs is something everybody does when they start holdem. You see your high pair and already preflop starts to think about the big pot you are going to win and then you cant fold.

This is a common scenario: You got this megalooseplayer coldcalling your KK preflop and betting out when flop comes A73rainbow. You raise, a guy behind you coldcalls and Mr megaloose call. Turn is a blank and Mr Megaloose bets into you again. You cant belive he is so lucky so you call turn and guy behind you call. River is another blank. Mr Megaloose bets again and you think for a while and call (pot is so big now, you dont have to be right very often...), player behind you raise, Mr Megaloose calls and you.... welll.... you hope for a miracle... you call. And yes: you got bronze. Megaloose hit A on flop with his Axo and player behind you hit 2 pair on river with his Axo. You should have folded when he bet into you on turn knowing that either he or other player, probably both, got that A. (Your KK is middlepair on flop. Noone would stand this heat with middlepair... but with pocketpairs you see it all the time.)

Learn to fold your pocketpairs, this is very important. Dont get married to that AA when action shows someone got trips.

This "good player" was coldcalling in MP with AK?

Maybe he is good, but he got things to work on, not 3betting AK is a misstake. At a tighter table he perhaps will get away with it because they will fold behind him anyway. But at a 2/4, not 3betting will often change the hand from 2 or 3-way into multiway and then you must hit your AK to win. Also, if you are a tight, winning player 3betting often will give you a lot of respect. You can use this respect to steal the pot or get a free card.

pilamsolo · #5 01-10-2004, 07:30 AM

I think you played it well. I don't play party $2-$4, but it seems very unlikely to me that the player is raising with anything less than a King, unless he is a total maniac. If he wanted to play a flush draw hyper-agressive, he would have cappped the flop. Good fold.

jasonHoldEm · #6 01-10-2004, 03:29 PM

Thanks for the analysis GoT, checking the math you're absolutely right...I thought the call/fold was closer. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I also agree with the other poster pointing out the "good" player didn't three-bet his AKo...hmmm...

Peace,
J

bicyclekick · #7 01-10-2004, 03:36 PM

Played will on all streets.

bernie · #8 01-10-2004, 03:54 PM

id fold this. unless this player is known to get out of line. moer often than not, you're way behind here and you're not getting the right odds to spike an A (22-1) so im not even worried if they're in the others' hands.

the flop he could be jamming a draw. the turn play usually tells you he isnt drawing in this spot.

b

btw...

what would the 'good' player be coldcalling with as the first player to call your raise?

bernie · #9 01-10-2004, 04:00 PM

the good player may play fine postflop. but preflop he needs a little work. post flop he played fine. preflop im raising or folding this. (depending on the raiser. even then im 95+% of the time 3 betting. your cap will tell me better how to play the flop if i miss)

i have a feeling he has some other leaks. if it was suited i could let it slide a little easier.

b