Losing streak - when do you start to worry about your play?

el_grande · #1 01-09-2004, 02:09 PM

I'm in a losing streak at my 3/6 B&M game. I've lost 63BB in the last 10 hours of play. That puts me at -16BB for my total time at that room which is about 40 hours. I will spare you the bad beat stories because nobody wants to hear that. Most significant to the streak is having 5 out of 7 sets cracked by flushes and higher sets. There aren't any hands I think are worth posting. Maybe a few where I could have saved a little here and there, but nothing thought I played badly. I consider myself fairly tight- I play a little looser than Lee Jones WLLHE style since I find myself at passive tables. I'll keep suited kings and low pocket pairs in middle position. I get away from them on the flop unless something really good happens.

I understand the concept of variance, but I'm not sure what kind of variance to expect (other than Homer's article at Crockpot's page). At what point to you start to realize you are doing something wrong?

And... how bad do you think this streak is? Is it typical?

Thanks!

Stu Pidasso · #2 01-09-2004, 02:25 PM

You have not described anything that is not normal. Expect much bigger swings than the one your in. I just got off a 150bb swing. You have to accept that big swings are a necessary part of poker and without them we could not be winners. If your concerned about your play post some hands.

If you have a swing of 300bb its safe to say you are probably not a winning player.

Stu

el_grande · #3 01-09-2004, 02:30 PM

Thanks. I really want to know what kind of swings good players like the ones here are getting.

Hopefully more people will respond.

MaxPower · #4 01-09-2004, 02:31 PM

Very typical results. 40 hours is nothing. A solid player can easily lose that much in 40 hours even if he makes no mistakes.

Except in the very long term (100's of hours) you shouldn't judge your play based on your results.

Expect the worst. You can play perfect poker and lose 200 big bets over the next 100 hours.

As far as your question goes, I always evaluate my play whether I am winning or losing.

If you think you did something wrong. Post it here. We won't be shy about telling you.

Luke · #5 01-09-2004, 03:23 PM

It doesn't sound like you are having any out of the ordinary swings. Having 5 out of 7 sets cracked will cause some losses. Not much you can do about it.

As for when should you start worrying - I'm always worrying about my play. Well, I don't know if worrying is the right word.

I'm always thinking about my play. Should I have limped or raised preflop? Called that turn raise? Bet the river? ect. I'm always analyzing my play and thinking of ways to improve, whether I'm winning or losing.

A good illustration is the other night I was playing with my fionce. She has very limited experience but is improving. Anyway, she missed a couple clear river value bets and I pointed it out to her. She replied by saying, "it doesn't matter, I'm winning!" Well, I said, "You have more money than you started with but that's not winning poker. I feel that you just lost money by missing those bets."

I think you get the idea.

So I analyze my plan, up or down, coming off a rush or a downswing. A big part of hand analysis form me is reading and writing posts on 2+2. I suggest you post some hands, even if you are *sure* you played them right. Pick about 5 hands that you played in a session - post them - and see what the SSers think. They're not shy.

I'll keep suited kings and low pocket pairs in middle position.

Suited kings in middle position? I hope you're not playing hands like K5s in MP. Post some hands...

Luke

jonahmavesin · #6 01-09-2004, 03:35 PM

Interesting question:

Mason says the right bankroll is 300BB. This makes sense if a big downswing is 150BB. But let's say you hit that downswing. Now you're at 150BB. How do you make the call that you are just on a bad run vs. a losing player, given that in the former case you'll probably come out of your plummet, and in the latter case you'll probably lose your whole bankroll? At what point do you drop down? Do you really need more than 300BB?

ropey · #7 01-09-2004, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, she missed a couple clear river value bets and I pointed it out to her. She replied by saying, "it doesn't matter, I'm winning!" Well, I said, "You have more money than you started with but that's not winning poker. I feel that you just lost money by missing those bets."

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried this with my girlfriend...I hope that you will have more success than I did!

-ropey

J.R. · #8 01-09-2004, 03:45 PM

But let's say you hit that downswing. Now you're at 150BB. How do you make the call that you are just on a bad run vs. a losing player

You have to decide youself whether you are being outplayed or outdrawn. The best way is to identify the mistakes made by both you and your opponents. If you can't find your opponent's mistakes and/or are unhappy/uncomfortable with you own play, then its time to step down.

Do you really need more than 300BB?

This number assumes you win about 1 big bet/hr with a standard deviation of around 11 (from my iffy memory), so the answer comes from your performance.

biggambler · #9 01-09-2004, 04:29 PM

Most women are just naturally less aggressive then men. Work on other parts of her game that will sink in and she will use.

Joe Tall · #10 01-09-2004, 04:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
when do you start to worry about your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Never. Well, you won't have to 'worry' as long as you constantly work on your game. Read, play, post, think, share, debate and make the adjustments that will help your game evolve into a stronger one. If you find yourself winning then give up studying, reading, etc, you will become stale and grow mold.

Poker is so massively complex there are many levels with each step. As long as you keep working at it you will continue to grow and never have to 'worry'.

Peace,
Joe Tall