When not to bet on river?

Hi All--


I'm having trouble determining when *not* to bet on the river, heads up. I've read about times when you wouldn't bet, because your opponent would only call (or raise) if they could beat you. If anyone can give me a rule-of-thumb, or some solid examples of this situation I'd really appreciate it (I believe this is a real leak in my game).


Thanks!

Hi Again--


Hmmm, no responses to my original post. Does my question make sense?


I'm thinking of times when you're in EP, betting all the way, end up HU with someone calling you the whole way, then you have to decide whether or not to bet on the river.


For example:

Me - QhQs

Oppononet - ??


Flop: Kd-7s-5d

Turn: 8c

River: 3s


Assuming I came out betting each round until the river, and it's now heads up, should I bet again? I know that I wouldn't bet if the river was a diamond.


I believe that I read some posts about times (like this?) where you simply wouldn't bet, because your opponent would not call unless he has you beat. How do I know when this "rule" applies?


Thanks in advance for any help.

Heads up,you must win more than 50% of your bets when you are called. Of course, there is some judgement here. If you feel that your opponent will not call your bet, you shouldn't bet. (as you noted, he will only call (or raise) if you have misread him). Also, if you are right and he has little, you may induce a bluff bet. If you feel that he has a calling hand, but you have him beat, then a bet is in order, But you must be right more than half the time that he calls.I think I read somewhere where 55% should cover your mistakes. In more simplistic terms, your heads up river bets must have a positive expectation. Example: You flop a top 2 pair and are called to the river. The flop has 2 spades and no spade comes on the turn or river(nor anything else). You are certain that your caller has spades and did not connect. If you are first, you do not bet, as he won't call you. HOWEVER. you may induce a bluff. If you read your opponent for a pair or 2 pair less than yours, you would bet hoping for a call. I hope this isn't too much rambling. This situation is covered in more complete detail in S and M's and other poker books. Good Luck.