#1
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Winning session probability
People will have to make some assumptions about this one.
For sake of argument, we'll say that Joe wins at 1BB per 100 hands. How many hands does he need to play to be 50% likely or better, to have a winning session in a full ring game, assuming he starts on the big blind. Because of the mechanics of winning poker play, I'm thinking that most sessions under 30 or 40 hands will be losers, even for a winning player. Im as interested in the assumptions you make as the actual answer, although i feel the answer would be very interesting from a proposition bet point of view (two people betting on an unsuspecting third party) Lori |
#2
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Re: Winning session probability
All I can say is from my experience in keeping statistics on
loose ring LHE games where my win rate was between 1.2 BB and 1.4 BB an hour, the average number of pots (including blind steals!) per hour was approximately 1.5. The games were B&M with slow players/slow dealers so it was unlikely that on average more than 37 hands an hour so I probably won only between 4 and 5% of the pots. For one orbit, I think a tight aggressive player would be an underdog to be up and would be a big favorite to be stuck (albeit most of the time it will be for a very small number of bets). For two orbits I think it would be closer, but again, I think a tight aggressive winning player would be a underdog to be up; on the other hand, players that adopt a looser style (not necessarily a style that would have a better long run +EV) might have a better than 50% chance of being up after two orbits. I think 3 orbits is sufficient for a long-run winning player to have a greater than 50% chance of being up any amount of chips. If the player only makes 1 BB per a hundred hands, he may be playing too tight, in which case it is much less likely he would be up after three orbits; on the other hand, if this player plays a little too loose, it is much more likely that he would be up after three orbits. I think four orbits would normally suffice for this winning player to have a better than even chance to be up. The biggest factor seems to be the % of pots won which will be a function of how often the player takes the flop, the turn and the river. |
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