Question for Jim Brier

You have As2s and Call, heads up, an UTG Raise from BB.


Flop: Ad 8c 6h


You automatically Call your opp's automatic Bet.


Turn: 3s


You Check. Opp Bets. You ???


If you Call, what's your usual River Plan?

I might well have check-raised my opponent's flop bet. Sometimes they fold. In any case, if I just called the flop bet, I would usually fold the turn bet against "a typical player". I have found that when many UTG preflop raisers keep charging on fourth street when an ace flops, they have a big ace in this situation. Frequently, after they get called on the flop, they will check it back on the turn with a hand like KK,QQ,JJ,TT, or KQ suited happy to take a free card.


Now is this approach "exploitable"? Of course it is IF your opponent knows exactly how you think and how you play. But this is not usually the case.


For every post-flop strategy there is a counter-strategy. But this counter-strategy only works WHEN your opponent knows what your strategy is exactly. I might well have check-raised the flop bet and then led at my opponent on the turn if he just calls. If he raises my turn bet in this sequence, then I fold. If he calls my turn bet, then I will usually check the river when a blank comes.


The only time I end up paying off all the way to the river when I make a top pair of aces against an early preflop raiser, is when the raiser is highly skilled or simply very tricky or aggressive. But against most players, I believe you can get off top pair in this situation a high enough percentage of the time to make getting involved initially a positive EV.