Would somebody run a sim for me?

I need somebody to run a sim for me.


I want to know what % of the time 22, 55, and 88 will win the pot when they flop a set. I know how often they will flop a set but they won't necessarily win the pot even when they do.


If anybody has any non-sim data which shows how often you will win the pot when you flop a small/medium set, I would love to see that data as well.


I'm trying to determine under what circumstances a player can profitably cold-call a pre-flop raise with a small/medium pair. A comment by Tommy Angelo in Medium Stakes that he would call 3.5 bets pre-flop (from the small blind) with a pair as small as 22 has resparked my interest in doing a mathematical analyis of when these calls can be profitably made. Of course, I will post any worthwhile analysis I make.

think in 2+2 books they say youll win after flopping set ~80% time.


thats general, i dont know how you would tweak for # players.


brad

download "poker" from http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/.../programs.html


that will show you exactly what you are looking for

not sure if this is the type of sim you were looking for, but here is what i did.


1. turbo texas hold'em version 5

2. "tough" lineup

3. 6-12 game (structured like "mirage" games)


10% max $3 rake, .75 cent tip

4. seat 1 gets pocket dueces with a duece on the flop. run auto test for 1 million hands.

5. results: win 9.8% with a net profit of $2.62 a hand.


hope this is of some help, remember that your results will probably be better as you play better than the computer player. though that is somewhat negated by the fact that some of your opponents also play better than your computer opponents.

good luck

I tried this simulator out, think it may be buggy. I got the following results for 88, 55, 22 each flopping a set against 7 random hands all staying through river.


88 won ~70.5%

55 won ~67.5%

22 won ~70.5%


Maybe I did it wrong, anyone want to try and verify these results?

Huh? You flop a set and only win 10% of the hands!?!?

The problem with your sim is it does not limit the wins to just sets. It could include unimproved pair, and straights and flushes.


Stu

yeah 10% does seem low, i'll double check my setup and re-run it.

thanks

the computer player only saw the flop 17.6% of the time ( he didn't know he would flop a set).

when he did play he won 42.4% of the time