Streaks in Poker and how you play them - an observation

[Webster]

The subject came up with a friend about "when do you quit for a night".

I said I stop when I start havign a bad streak. Now - of course we all know that cards have no memory (unlike BJ) and you are never IN a streak, a streak is always just ending and a new one is starting.

Well - anyway - he says my quiting when things turn bad is illogical AND - when I posted a question here basically you all said so also.

HOWEVER - how many of you have stopped during a rush! NO! can't stop when the cards are hitting you in the face can you!

hmmmmmm! seems there is a double standard working here!

[jedi]

While I'm far from an expert, I think the texture of the table and your emotional state tell you more than the cards do. If I'm on a bad streak, I'll quit not because the cards are running bad, but because I know I'm more prone to make mistakes in an effort to get unstuck. That just leads to more losses and it's a bad tilt cycle. Of course, if I know that I can outplay these players, I'll just buy-in again and try to turn a profit. Of course, I'll have to evaluate my emotional state as well.

When a game is going good, it'll be less likely that you'll quit. Even if it's just a good run of cards, your table image might be changed positively, and you might be able to win some pots just from table image than if you had a bad image from running bad.

[Hung]

Many of my pokerfriends don't believe in luck. I do. I believe in luck and bad luck. There're days you can't beat anyone and there're other days when you can take Doyle, Nguyen, Phil, Chan etc all together. Up and downs.
The most important thing in poker is making a lot of money when you're having luck and losing a minimum of money when you're having bad luck. That's what I think about poker and I'll always keep that in mind.
Bad luck: change gear to 1 (tight)
luck: chance gear to 5 (crazy maniac)

[LetsRock]

I just finished reading a section in one of my poker books about "streaks". (Sorry I don't remember which one.) It's impossible to know if you're "in" a streak; a streak is something that has already happened and is done. You can't predeict what the next results will be; therefore you can't know if you're still within the framework of what you're calling a streak.

In general, you shouldn't make any poker decisions based on the perception that you are "in the midst" of a streak - you need to make every decision based on the conditions of now, not the conditions of "what has been" (with the exception of "playing the person") or "what will be".

If you're quitting because you don't have the "best of it" then that is a good decision; if you continue because you fell that you have very much the "best of it" then your'e making a good decision. The fact that you just had good or bad fortune for the past 100 (or whatever) hands should have no bearing on your decision to play or not.

[thomastem]

One thing to remember when you run hot and take down a couple of big pots is that others believe you are on a streak and will get out of your way even when they have the best of it. So in other words a hot streak that you've had can set-up future won pots that you would have otherwise lost if not for the lucky perception.

As for actual luck and playing the rush; In the short run anyone can beat anyone. My goat reminds me everyday that we're not in it for the short run though.