When to get up from the table

[Ace-Korea]

Let's say you're playing hold 'em at a full-table against 9 opponents (10 players total). Theoretically you should win about 10% of the time, but you've been very lucky and you are winning 15% of the time. Because of that you won some money. Now, do you get up from the table or do you stay?

I usually get up in this kind of situation because of 'regression toward the mean.' If I've been very lucky the last 50 hands, then it's likely that I WON'T be as lucky the next 50 hands. Even I have more skill than most players at the table, I'm not sure if it's worth the time and risk to continue playing.

I guess this kind of sounds stupid since I might as well as quit playing poker after one big winning session. Any thoughts?

[Hung]

If I've been very lucky the last 50 hands, then it's likely that I WON'T be as lucky the next 50 hands

That's a pretty funny statement.
Who says you've been lucky the last 50 hands? Maybe it was 10, 20, 30 or 40. Or more. Maybe you'll be lucky for 500 hands and after that you'll get unlucky. So why did you use the number 50? It's not possible to determine when your luck stops or starts. If you had enough you stop, if you feel like playing more, go ahead. Only if you know the players are outplaying you, you've a good reason to quit. If you're playing a good game, there's no reason to leave. Poker is something you'll do for the rest of your life. It has no end. People that stop after a few winning hands are bad players. They'll never get the best out of their winning streaks. Because they quit too soon. If you're scared to lose your winnings, you should stop poker FOREVER. If you don't lose it today you'll lose it tomorrow. While this moment is your moment, you're on fire. You've having a winning streak and then you leave. That's a big mistake that a lot of players make. You should stay when you win. Only if really want to quit you can leave the table. But don't leave the table because you want to keep the winnings a little longer.

ps: today I won $500 playing my usual ringgame. One of my best days I ever had. I played every hand. I was on fire. After awhile I just got tired and left the tables.

[Mike Gallo]

Let's say you're playing hold 'em at a full-table against 9 opponents (10 players total). Theoretically you should win about 10% of the time, but you've been very lucky and you are winning 15% of the time. Because of that you won some money. Now, do you get up from the table or do you stay

If I have the best of it, and still feel "fresh", I will stay. If the game became "bad", or I cannot stay awake, I leave.

If I've been very lucky the last 50 hands, then it's likely that I WON'T be as lucky the next 50 hands. Even I have more skill than most players at the table, I'm not sure if it's worth the time and risk to continue playing

Do your self a favor and read either Getting the Best of It, or Gambling Theory and Other topics. You need a better foundation in gambling theory.

[Mike Haven]

You could have won every hand for the last hour - theoretically, (if you stayed to the showdown in every hand), you will win 10% of the next number of hands. Who's gonna tell the cards you won "too many" already?

In fact, there is an argument that because you have been winning more than your fair share the other players think you are "hot" and give your bets greater respect, leading to your continuing to win more hands than perhaps you "should".

Of course, if the shoe is on the other foot, and someone else appears to be running hot, you, as the better player, do not let his previous good run affect the way you play your cards, (except by being aware that he may change his play because of his past hands, etc, etc.)

If you are comfortable and still playing your best game, play on. If you're uncomfortable and worried you may lose back some of your winnings, take a break.

[trillig]

All this talk of luck?

SKILL baby! You could win 2% of the hands, but still triple your BUY-IN.

-t

[pretender2k]

Skylansky says stay at the game as long as you are playing better than anyone else whether you are winning or loosing you are earning your expected hourly rate as long as you are playing your best game. When that changes because you are tired or go on tilt or the players change and you are no longer a favorite. Just tonight I was sitting in a game that according to my pokertracker stats I can earn a big bet every ten hands. All I could say was WOW. I want to know which book recommends calling on the river with four to a suit on the board with third pair because all these people read it and I think I owe the author some money because I was making a big bet every three hands on average. I just got off work and played for 4 hours before work so after about two and a half hours I decided I was just too tired to play. Again I just say WOW. I have too learn to stay awake longer.