#1
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Super System/ Hold\'em Poker F.A.P. odds discrepency.
I was looking over the Hold'em Probability charts in Doyle Brunson's SUPER SYSTEM and in Sklansky & Malmuth's HOLD'EM POKER FOR ADVANCED PLAYERS and I have a question.
On page 575 of SUPER SYSTEM on the chart labeled ''Holdem- basic data'' it says: if you have four parts of an Open Ended Straight-Flush after the flop you will make at least a straight 54.12% of the time and the odds against you are 0.85 to 1. In HOLD'EM POKER F.A.P.on page 309, 54.1% is also the percentage listed to complete the above stated 15 out straight-flush draw. Now to my question. How do you get 54.1 percent? the formula for converting a percentage into ''odds to 1'' is to subtract the percentage 54.1% from 100 equaling in this case 45.9. Then dividing the result 45.9 by the percentage subtracted (54.1)which equals .85 to 1. 100 - 54.1 = 45.9 .8482 = 45.9/54.1 or .85 to 1 Now with the straight-flush draw you have 47 unseen cards and 15 outs which is a 32% shot on fourth street and a 30% shot(46 unseen cards and 14 outs) on the river to complete your hands. Would that be correct? If it is then you would have 2.1 to 1 odds on fourth street and 2.3 to 1 odds on the river. How do you get 54.1% or .85 to 1 out of this? What am I doing wrong? |
#2
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Re: Super System/ Hold\'em Poker F.A.P. odds discrepency.
It's best to consider the combinations of turn and river
cards that miss. For the turn to miss, the chances are 32/47 and after that, to miss on the river is 31/46 so that the chances of missing is the product 32/47 x 31/46 = 496/1081. Thus, the chances of not missing is simply 1 - 496/1081 = 585/1081 = 0.54117. Forget about using the odds to one if that proves confusing. Just consider the raw chances or probability. |
#3
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Re: Super System/ Hold\'em Poker F.A.P. odds discrepency.
bigpooch already answered how to calculate this answer, I'm just posting a link to this handy holdem suckout chart.
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