Shaken confidence

[ThaSaltCracka]

I feel like I have been slipping as of late in my NL poker play. I am use to making the right lay downs, hands that would have eaten me up if I had called, however in the span of one week I made two terrible folds, that probably cost me the tournaments I was playing in.

I am wondering if any of you guys would have made the same plays, or if I was just being really dumb, either way the plays shook my confidence in my abilities.

The first fold, was on the final table of a NL tournament, I was to the left of the button, with about 1600, blinds were around 200-400. I was dealt KQh, UTG player immediately goes all in with a short stack, for some reason this concernced me, pocket pair perhaps?? I know I am a slight underdog against any pocket pair, so I decide to fold, the button and the small blind both go all in behind me. If I had played I would have had two pair queens and kings, the other players turned there cards over, UTG had J8o, jackass, the button had pocket 10s, the SB had pocket 77s, so clearly I would have one. Terrible play, I know.

The next bad fold, was on PP, 30 NL tournament, full table, dealt pocket Kings first hand in the BB, I know nice. Anyways, 3 limpers before the bet got back to me, raised to 75, blinds were only 10-15, so I didnt feel like winning 65 with pocket kings by making a huge raise, anyways the button and the player to his left call. Flop is 2-8-10 rainbow, I bet 150, the Button-1 goes all in and then the button does as well. I think here, this cannot be an easy call, either player may have trips here. I know neither has two pair because no one would call a raise with 2-8,8-10,2-10. For some reason I felt the re-raise over me showed considerable strength, so I fold. Maybe because I didn't feel like being knocked out on the first hand if I was wrong. Anyways, the button-1 had pocket jacks, and the button had pocket queens, I would have tripped up and demolished them.
did I do anything correct here in my raises or fold, or were the other players playing dumb?
I don't know, but that last one was definitely the worst fold of my playing career.

[JKratzer]

Read (or reread) Sklansky. Your evidence for the poor quality of these plays is that "I would have won if I stayed in." Regardless of outcomes, analyze the play for itself. You are not doing this. If someone would have had you beat, would you still be writing about how you made a terrible play? I think not, so think more about the long-term results and not individual outcomes.

[eMarkM]

I don't think you made terrible laydowns in either case. The KQ, I'm folding to an UTG raise, though it depends on just how short he is. If the call is a siginicant portion of your stack, no question, I'd fold. You're at the final teble and anyone else getting eliminated moves you up the pay ladder, so you must be more selective. And I ain't hanging my hat on KQ. Don't look at the results and ponder "what if". You made a good laydown in this case.

The cowboy hand is a little more questionable. It's the whole know your opponent thing. Chances are online he was totally unknown to you. There are some at this level of buy-in who'd go all-in on AT, as well as the QQ, JJ overpairs the players actually had. It's not an easy call, but I probably would have bitten the bullet and called for a chance at doubling early. If the guy had a set, he may have slowplayed you instead of moving in, but I'd likely take the shot he didn't have TT/88/22, the only hands you fear here.

[tewall]

Your not thinking about the situation correctly. You can't judge a decision based on the results of a given hand, but must consider the results of all the possible hands.

You need to look at what hands your opponents could have had in the hands you cited, and given that, determine some probability that you would win, and based on that you can determine if your lay downs were good or not.

You're goal shouldn't be to make the right decision in every case (based on results), but the best decision you can given all the factors available for you to consider. Even the best players make wrong decisions.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I see what you guys are saying, I think just what makes it hurt more is the sense that I would have one, I mostly thought the KK was the worse of the two moves, It just comes down to what do you do after folding a possible winning hand. Basically how do you move on, I know at the start of the tournament it is easier because there is a lot of time left, but at the final table it hurts especially, in either case you can't really get up and take a break from one hand.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I see what you guys are saying, I think just what makes it hurt more is the sense that I would have one

[/ QUOTE ]

This is totally fundamental:

IT DOESN'T MATTER ONE LICK HOW THE HAND PLAYED OUT.

Got that? None. Zero. Nada. Doesn't matter.

What matters is how the hand plays out _on average_ over many, many, many identical situations.

I know it can be hard to think of it this way, but it is the only reasonable way to think about poker.