My email to Ulysses

[jen]

I think this hand is very context-sensitive and so didn't think it was particularly relevant for 2+2, but Ulysses strongly disagreed with my play and really wanted me to post. So Ulysses, here you go --

LC, 5-5 game, $200-$1700 stacks. I was the biggest stack.

****************

there's a decent regular there who plays aggressively
(bluffs and talks a lot...asian, sunglasses). he bluffs
a lot but mostly stays out of my way.

ok, first hand we played together - he limped. all
folded to me in the BB. I called. flop came high cards.
I checked, he bet the pot ($20 - an auto-bet for him
here), I re-raised ($50). he said to me - "you got
some of that, huh?" - and folded. I said, "I just
knew that you didn't get any of that." guy beside me
laughed. asian guy said, "just keep doing that..."
an hour later, XXX does the same check-raise move
to the guy... asian guy said - "just keep doing
that..."

fast forward another hour - XXX opened utg for $15,
asian guy called, two others called, I called with
3h6h in SB, BB called.

flop: [2 5 T] (rainbow)

checked around.

turn: [2 5 T] 4 (rainbow)

I had ~$1700, barely covering the asian guy. I bet
$40, BB called, asian guy raised $120, making it $160
to go. all folded to me. I went all-in. BB folded.
asian guy thought not too long and called.

river: [2 5 T] 4 6

I busted asian guy who had a slow-played set.

[Ulysses]

My initial response
---
With these stack sizes, I go back and forth on the pre-flop call. I only make the call if I'm playing well enough that I feel I can get away from losing all my money w/ flush over flush. How big are the other stacks around the table (this should be in your post, as it's important in the preflop decision)?

[addendum: most of the stacks were much smaller. Given that, I say just muck it pre-flop]

First off, the turn lead bet. If someone is going to call $40, they're likely to call a pot bet of $90. You can't count on getting raised here, but the more you get called with on the turn, the more you can bet on the river. Also, betting $40, you are laying a great price for someone to bust you w/ something like 78.

[addendum - all things considered, I'd bet at least $75 here]

So, things go well and you get raised. Now there's $90 + $40 + $40 + $160 = $330 in the pot. You raise $1500. I hate that. I'd put you on exactly two hands at this point - a set or A3. If I have TT I have a really tough decision. If I have A3, you bust me. But when a straight is possible on the board that has an Ace in it, it's easy to put someone on that hand since you'd expect them to play A3s in this situation. So, you let the guy easily get away from a ton of hands - overpairs, pair + straight draw, small set, etc. Sure, the guy is waiting for an opportunity to get you. But I think it would have been a much better play to raise $400-500 and then push on the river.

[addendum - with that kind of raise, I don't think a one-card straight card on the river that requires you to have a 3 will kill action from any hand that would have called an all-in on the turn. But he will be getting odds on the river bet to call w/ some hands that he might have thrown away to the turn all-in]
---

And some elaboration in another email
---
First, pre-flop. The more I think about it, the more I dislike that call, mainly because it's so easy to lose all your chips to a bigger flush. I don't think this is a big deal, though.

Then, you have a huge hand on the turn. You'll either get action or you won't. If one or more of your opponents has something like 88, they will quite likely call two bets. By betting more on the turn, you can bet more on the river. If they are going to steal (which is a big possibility on that board after it gets checked around), by betting more on the turn you make them put more chips in for a steal raise, so again, betting more on the turn is better. And if they have a hand (say, Ten crap-kicker), betting more on the turn just makes it easier to get all the chips in. So, I think the weak underbet is a big mistake for that reason. As well as the fact that you are giving great odds to a gutshot draw. And if they have a monster, well, it doesn't matter all that much.

Now, when you get raised, I really dislike the push. There are some idiots who will call here w/ anything that beats top pair. But you said this guy was OK. It's not hard to put you on something like A3 here. So you let him get away from a lot of hands that could bleed off most of his chips in two bets.

I guess it comes down to this: If he has a set, you can get all the money in regardless. But by pushing, you give him a chance to escape from bottom set. But a lot of other hands, you can get more chips in, so the three scenarios are:

1) He's stealing: how much you raise is moot, he's folding.
2) He has a medium-strength hand - he'll fold to an all-in, but will call raises up to a certain size based on his hand, then will call more on the river.
3) He has a set - if it's top set, it probably doesn't matter. With bottom or middle set, if you raise he'll either reraise or the pot will be big enough for you to easily stack on the river. But he might fold those hands when you push. In any case, I don't see any upside to pushing on the turn when he has a set.

It seems pretty clear to me that pushing on the turn here is a mistake. I'd never do it. I think it would be interesting to hear what the real experts think. One thing I consider is that maybe I don't push enough. This is a great example of where I think (including the given context) it's clearly correct not to push. I'd definitely like to hear what others think. So, post it. Please. :-)
---

[Paul2432]

This is a game mostly played by regulars right? I think it really is impossible to say what the right play was without being there. Jen may have picked up on some small dynamic of the game, that told her that the all-in would be called.

Paul

[J.A.Sucker]

Hey Jen,

Who was it? Was it Vin (8 seat, Vietnamese guy)?

[JKratzer]

I agree with Ulysses on every point. Preflop, not a good call, consider - if they weren't suited would you play? Too many times people overvalue suited cards. 3 6 is not a good hand. I would also bet more on the turn and reraise much less than all-in. Reraise just enough that you think he will be pot-commmited--> depends on his stack. If you truly feel your actions are correct based solely on your personal read of this particular player, no one can really disagree with your actions, because you did get all his money this way. However, against most solid players I would not expect similar results consistently.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
if they weren't suited would you play?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually a really good question.

[sam h]

I agree with Ulysses on the preflop play and that a bigger turn bet is called for. But as far as the push goes, I think Jen might be right here and it is pretty player/vibe dependent. The thing that swings it in favor of a push (in addition to the player and history, which is the dominant factor) in my mind is the small turn bet. I can just see this guy thinking, "She must be bluffing. Why make such a small bet on the turn if she had a wheel or top set on this board? Yeah she thinks she can push me around but I've got a set damnit!" Other factors favoring pushing: Jen will be in a tough spot if she raises 500 or so and the board pairs (although generally a laydown will be safe here). Jen's action may be killed if she raises 500 or so and another straight card hits.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah she thinks she can push me around but I've got a set damnit!

[/ QUOTE ]

The times he has a set, sure. But I just think that sometimes given this sequence he'll have something that's not a set, but can potentially still get all the chips in the middle. And pushing is the only way there's a chance he can get away from a small set.

[ QUOTE ]
Jen will be in a tough spot if she raises 500 or so and the board pairs

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not. I'd expect him to re-raise all in on the turn most of the time when he has a set, so the money is likely to go in on the turn when he has a set.

[ QUOTE ]
Jen's action may be killed if she raises 500 or so and another straight card hits.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's a 3, possibly. But if an Ace or 6 hits, I don't think that changes much. If he calls the turn raise, I don't see him deciding on the river that she has a hand with a 3 in it. Sometimes he'll fold, I guess, but I think that if he has a hand that would call an all-in on the turn, he's very likely to call an all-in on the river with those hands even w/ another straight card.

[jen]

Yes.

[jen]

I didn't read Ulysses' post (I read it originally when he emailed to me), but here were my responses to him:

1. I don't think folding 36s is bad, but I also think it's playable in this game -- passive, full of unscary players. I wouldn't play this out-of-position in a more difficult, aggressive game.

2. I bet $40 on the turn, because any two over-cards may call as well as a host of other dead hands. I wanted to build a pot. And I believe that given my table image, if I bet the pot, $90, then all might fold.

3. I went all-in because the Asian guy was feeling like he was getting pushed around. I also thought he either had a set or nothing. If he had a mediocre hand on the flop, then he would have bet it. If he had a mediocre hand on the turn, then he would have called.

So if he had nothing and was trying to push me off my weak bet, then he wouldn't call a pot-sized bet either. But if he had a set, then he'd call my all-in (when it's possible that he won't call an all-in on the river if a scary card hit).

4. This guy is a decent, aggressive, bluffing player in my estimation -- but I wouldn't put him in the "good" category.