Paradise $20/$40 hand

[Vehn]

I was bored and thought I'd give this game a try. Table is somewhat loose and very aggressive.

MP open raises. LP to his left coldcalls. CO to his left coldcalls. I call in the big blind with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet, MP calls, LP folds, CO calls.

Turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet, MP folds, CO calls.

River: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet. Meh?

[Schneids]

I like.

If CO has a jack why wouldn't he have raised on the flop or turn? You have to bet here since your bet should be representing a jack to him, which might get him to fold a 9 or TT. Pot is large enough where you don't have to win often to make this bet right. But, you know this already.

[Clarkmeister]

"your bet should be representing a jack to him, which might get him to fold a 9 or TT."

No 20-40 player in a mildly aggressive game, or any other game for that matter, is folding a 9 or TT on a JJ986 board. Ever.

His bet is for value, plain and simple. And while I do think that any 8, 6 or lower pair will call, I suspect that he has a better chance of inducing a bluff from a busted draw of some type.

Value bet or induce the bluff? Close enough that I suspect it doesn't matter.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet or induce the bluff? Close enough that I suspect it doesn't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a question for you then, Clark: If this is the case, does it become better to check/call here in order to avoid the instances where you bet and get raised?

Thanks.

[AJo Go All In]

the thing is, when you bet and get raised, it's just as if you bet and got called by a 9.

i.e. it's a pretty simple fold on the river if you get raised.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing is, when you bet and get raised, it's just as if you bet and got called by a 9.

i.e. it's a pretty simple fold on the river if you get raised.



[/ QUOTE ]

Except that this is only true if there's a 0% chance your opponent could do this with a worse holding.

What if you're against a tricky opponent holding a lower PP or busted flush draw, who says, "ya know, there's a lot of money in this pot, and I've seen this wild reckless Vehn bet a whole lot of hands, but become paper mache to raises. Maybe he's been betting something I can get him off of with a raise? I don't have to succeed often to make this work, so, sure, let's make a play on the pot."

[J_V]

Why would 99 or 10-10 fold now? They'd have to be the worst player on the planet to make that fold after calling to the river. I bet here though because people pay. I hope he value raised his nine.

[davidross]

I thought you had sworn off online games forever?

I think the river bet is good. You will only win about a third of the time, but since you're getting 7.5 to 1 on the bet it's well worth it.

[Clarkmeister]

"You will only win about a third of the time, but since you're getting 7.5 to 1 on the bet it's well worth it."

This isn't how you should look at it. Since no better hand will fold, it is all about what are the chances he will call with a worse hand vs the chances I can induce a bluff from a busted draw/worse hand?

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river bet is good. You will only win about a third of the time, but since you're getting 7.5 to 1 on the bet it's well worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are not. I don't understand why you would think so.