Stars PLH: going with a read?

[Guy McSucker]

50c-$1 PLH on Pokerstars.

I am in late middle position with 2-2, stack of $100. A few limp in, I call looking for a set, button makes it $6, all fold to me.

Button has about $55 left, so the raise is 8% of the effective stack. Hmmm, not sure what to do. He's an aggressive player, so if I hit my set I think I have a good chance of getting paid off. He is also a pretty regular winning player, basically solid, so perhaps I shouldn't tangle with him. Anyway, I decide to call.

Comments? I am pretty sure a fold would be fine, but is it a bad play to call?

Flop comes J-8-3 rainbow. No set. Okay, no bet: I check. He pauses for a long while and finally bets $10 into the pot of just over $15.

To me, this absolutely screams AK or AQ. I do not think he likes the flop, anyway. Maybe he had 9-9 or T-T.

I decide to make a play, and reraise him, almost all-in. He thinks for a long time, finally reraises his last few bucks, which I call.

What do you all think of this? Foolhardy?

Guy.

[Guy McSucker]

He had ace king, and called my check-raise with nothing but overcards.

Do I need to reevaluate my read on him as a "solid player"?

I assume nobody wants to know what the turn and river were.

Guy.

[Zag]

You didn't say three important things: First, did anyone else call his raise? Second, did your call close out the betting preflop? Finally, is he one of those players who will ALWAYS bet on the flop if he has raised preflop and is chcked to?

If no one else called his raise, I would lay down the 22 preflop, unless the answer to the third question is yes. (At 8% of his stack, your implied odds are not as great as you would like.) If someone else did call, then it improves your implied odds, but, of course, you have to start to fear that they also have a small pair, and you could run into set over set, but that's a monster for another bed.

If the guy raising were a maniac, then I would be afraid to call unless I am closing out the betting. Another player behind you might decide to isolate the maniac and push you out. But that doesn't seem to be the case, here.

You did say he was aggressive, and you planned to get paid off if you hit your set. However, you then expected him to lay AK down to the check-raise. I guess you meant that you planned to get paid off if you hit your set AND he hit his TPTK. Or maybe you would have played a set differently?

Ah ha! I knew it. With a set, you would have only called the flop bet, and let him hang himself with a turn bet. Of course, the money is so thin that you couldn't have chech-raised the turn significantly -- another bet put him nearly all in. So what WERE you planning?

On the other hand, you did say that you made the check-raise only because you sensed weakness. (Always tricky online. It might have just been an Internet hiccup.) In this case, you made a great play. As it is, you got your money in when you were way ahead, better than 2.5 to 1. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=144214
Be happy that you made the right read, and made the right play based on the read, spend only a second being annoyed that he drew out, and move on.

[nicky g]

I want to know. I'm a sucker for results.

Looks like a great read to me.

"Do I need to reevaluate my read on him as a "solid player"?

Hard to say without knowing more about him. He may be reading you for reading him as weak. The problem is of course that even if you are playing back at him with very little, he may well still have even less, and he hasn't rnough of a stack left to push you out, so even if he's right he may have made a poor play. Either he's a solid but tricky player with a strong read on you, or he's a bit crazy. or maybe he was on tilt. I think you need to reevaluate, but watch him more before you come to a firm decision; don't simply recategorise him on the basis of this play.

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks for your replies.

Zag: I thought I had explained the preflop betting properly, apologies if it was not clear. I said "... I call, button raises to $6, all fold to me". So, nobody else called the raise, and my call was to close the betting. And yes, I imagined this player would bet the flop if checked to, regardless of his holding.

spend only a second being annoyed that he drew out

Hey! Who said he drew out?

I posted the hand because I was very pleased with my read (I don't make many), but concerned that I might be readying myself to donate my stack on a regular basis if I do this in the future. Does any of the experts here make this kind of read in online play?

Somehow, everything about the bet told me he was weak. The timing can of course be dictated by network considerations, but something about the it, together with the size of the bet, just triggered the "AK" alarm in my head.

Of course I expected him to lay it down to my raise if he had AK. When he put the last few $$$ in, I was sure I was drawing to a 2, and wanted to punch myself in the face. I was delighted to discover I was right the first time, and he was indeed playing AK.

I think my preflop call is bad if I'm only playing for a set, which I thought I was at the time. I just won't get another $30 out of him enough of the time, I don't think. I do wonder, though, about how it might play out in the hands of an expert: against an overpair you have a good chance of getting paid, and against overcards, if you can make a good read, you don't need to hit the set. That's not me, though. I need cards.

Speaking of which: it came down 2, 2. I got his hand from the hand history.

Guy.

[tewall]

I think it's an easy fold. Regardless of how your opponent plays, he has position on you, and 22 is about the most difficult hand there is to play out of position. I doubt in the long run you can make money playing it in this situation.

Nice read.

[1800GAMBLER]

I make this calls. I vary my play dependant on pot sized and my confidence size, plus aggressiveness of player.

Confident against an aggressive player, i'll call.

Unconfident but somewhat read i'll raise it.

The problem is with calling along is you are then looking at effective odds and putting your money in a little edge. High variance for small profit.

[ALL1N]

Hi Guy

I think you did play it well, and restealing against AK is where a lot of big bet poker profits can come from.

However, you are headsup on the flop, and it is not out of the question for players to bet just over half the pot with AA or KK on a fairly safe board headsup. If it was 3 or 4-way, a player made an underbet and the others folded, you would be in a great position to resteal, but the fact that it is headsup means that the aggressor would probably be more likely to underbet with the goods.

Also, there have been comments such as you need to be sure you're going to take his stack etc etc. This is not so. If you can take his stack when you hit your set against his overpair/top pair AND you can resteal his AK, then calling preflop is easily justifiable.

ALL1N