Who's for a one pair river value raise?

[JTG51]

I have to give some description of UTG (my main opponent in this hand) because a one or two word label just doesn't fit him.

He'll limp with virtually any two cards. He likes to bet the flop with any pair regardless of the preflop action, and often bets with no pair if there was no raise preflop. I wouldn't call him a maniac though since I haven't seen him raise after the flop with less than 2 pair yet. I also haven't seen him check raise yet, even in situations where that clearly seemed like the best play.

A few minutes earlier he limped from EP, called a raise from his left hand opponent, bet a 952 flop, called a raise then bet the turn when the 5 paired. When the smoke cleared he showed 85 for turned trips and the winner.

So, with that description in mind, onto the hand.

He limps UTG. EP raises and I 3-bet with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB calls, UTG calls, and EP calls. Four of us see the flop for three bets each.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet. UTG and EP call.

Turn: [K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to me and I bet. UTG calls and EP folds.

River: [K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He bets. Who raises and who calls, and how close is it?

Thanks.

[Ulysses]

Against the player described, I'd just call and I don't think it's that close.

[Tyler Durden]

I agree with Ulysses. I think calling is better b/c if he's the A2C type he might have hit his kicker on the end, and you don't want to open the door to a 3-bet from a loose goose like this one. He may have also been waiting with a strong hand. I don't think it's close.

If he shows down 85 again I think you have enough reason to throw your chair at him. I don't think that's close either.

Also, if this is his last-ditch effort to win the pot and he doesn't have much of a hand at all with something like A3 or A5 he may not call if you raise. And if he has nothing at all he won't call either.

[JTG51]

If he shows down 85 again I think you have enough reason to throw your chair at him.

LOL, he didn't have 85 again. I didn't even notice that coincidence while I was typing it.

[Paul Talbot]

I cannot fathom a reason for raising. Two piar could have hit, a flush could have hit. He now bets into you unexpectedly. He's either bluffing and wont call a raise or he's got you beat.

Not too many bad players figure they'll bet out the river because they were planing on calling anyway but might get a btter hand to fold. Yo need better than a pair to raise here.

Regards,

Paul

[Depraved]

He might call you with a worse hand if AK is good - for instance I've seen this play made with a weak king... Given your description though, this doesn't seem like a bluff or some sort of play more than it does an improvement of his hand.

You have reason to believe you're beat, so trusting your instincts (and flat calling) should suffice until you have more information on the guy. And in this particular situation, your decision calculus is highly dependent on the read you have.

If you're wrong, you can always re-evaluate this guy after the hand.

[JTG51]

He's either bluffing and wont call a raise or he's got you beat.

I don't understand why you think this. If he's got any pair he's definitely, without a doubt calling a raise on the river. Do you really see players bet one pair and fold to a raise on the river often?

[JTG51]

I forgot to mention that this was a 10/20 game, not that it matters much.

Anyway, I just called. He showed Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I won. I'm not surprised that everyone likes calling, I'm a little surprised that no one thinks it's closer though.

At the time I thought two pair was very unlikely unless it was runner, runner style since he bet the flop so consistantly when he made a pair. That left one pair or a flush. I'm sure he would bet a flush in that spot, I suspect he'd have bet an 8 also, but I'm not sure. Sounds like I made the right play anyway.

Thanks for the comments.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I am afraid that against opponents that bad I tend to call, not raise. He very well may have hit two pair or a flush on the river. You've already described him betting when his hand improved once. You might be able to calculate some sort of value in raising him, but I bet it'd all be gone when he reraises you back. I'd call.

al

[nykenny]

i would just call, why do you even consider raise?

kenny