10/25 No limit. top two pair, turn bet

[twistedbeats]

Four handed 10$/25$ NL on ultimatebet. everyone is playing with scared money. small blind has 1700, button has 2500, i have 5600

I"m dealt AJo utg, and bring it in for 75, which i've been doing maybe 1/4th the time.

the button and the small blind call.

flop comes AJ9, two clubs. i bet 150 into a 250 pot, and only get called by the small blind.

turn brings a red 8, small blind checks. i bet 400, and get check raised 400. what do you do?

[twistedbeats]

i convinced myself that the sb could easily be sick of me stealing and called. i am. the river mercifully came a 7, ad we checked it down, so i didn't call his last seven hundred dollars to see his pocket nines.

i even started off by saying that the sb was playing scared. to be betting that much, he needed at least a set, if not the straight .

[sam h]

twistedbeats,

Unless you have a huge read on this guy, I don't think you can fold here. There's no way he can put you on something as strong as top two, especially since its four handed, you've underbet the pot twice and have been raising frequently before the flop. There are a lot of two pair hands that many opponents would play this way given these circumstances.

The problem is getting that read, which is one reason - in addition to bankroll constraints - that I'm not sure I'd want any part of an online game this big. But you seem to handle it ok, so cheers.

[illmatic]

This is a bigger game by far than I've seen, so take my words with a grain of salt.

I think you can safely know he doesn't have the straight. I don't see a tight player like this calling your pre-flop raise with KQ. In retrospect, his min check-raise is a pretty wussy move that says "bottom set" from a weak straightforward player like this. He's scared of you having JJ or the straight. Maybe he's even scared of the monster under the bed AA. I think it's pretty possible you could have folded him off 99 by moving in on fourth with a few outs for the boat to save you if he calls.

I think you have to fold to a river bet, but he weakly checks it to you. You know you're beat here, likely, but with the four straight out there, I think he folds to an all-in. It's hard for a guy to call off his last $700 with a four straight out there and he not having either end.

No way he has the straight with the check on the river and this betting. There's only two hands he calls you pre-flop with that might have a Q, AQ and QQ, and he doesn't check raise on fourth with QQ. I don't think he raises you on fourth with AQ, with the open ended draw out of position and if he's that scared he probably doesn't call pre-flop with it either. And if he has 77, good runner-runner then.

I think you could have won this pot with all-in on fourth or river, but in the heat of battle it would have been difficult. But, it's good to know for the future how really scared this guy is playing. I think it's safe to say you could fold him off most any hand except the nuts.

later,
illmatic