88 folded on 67T flop

[MortalNuts]

I'm at a fairly loose (40% seeing flop) 0.25/0.5 table at Stars. UTG+2 and LMP in the following hand have both struck me during this session as fairly solid -- a bit too loose PF, but reasonable. I have no read on the remaining players.

UTG, I'm dealt 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and limp in. UTG+2 limps, LMP raises. SB and BB call two cold, I call, UTG2 calls. 5 to the flop.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Blinds check, I bet out. UTG2 raises, LMP 3-bets, it's folded back to me. I fold.

Comments? I'm not crazy about my betting out on the flop, given the PF action -- takes on the best strategy here? In the heat of battle, I thought it was a reasonable bet to find out where I stood.

For what it's worth, I thought there was a reasonable chance of UTG2 capping the betting after I acted.

[jbc]

Hmmm. Don't know 'bout the fold here. What were you counting as your outs here? Four nines? Eights may be no good. But, you have a backdoor straight flush draw as well. Interesting. Sounds like UTG2 may have JT and LMP has an overpair.

What happened?

Play well,
jbc

[Joe Tall]

I think you are getting 8:1 coming back to you on the flop, it's a borderline flop. With you comment that UTG+2 may cap, then I think your fold is good.

Welcome to the forum,
Joe Tall

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

That's an awful lot of action preflop to bet out with 2nd pair and backdoor draws on a coordinated board. I'd prefer checking the flop and seeing where the action comes from and folding to any kind of pressure.

Good fold when it's 2 more back to you.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
That's an awful lot of action preflop to bet out with 2nd pair and backdoor draws on a coordinated board

[/ QUOTE ]

Shizzle, I totally missed that. Checking and possibly calling here would have been the better option.

Thanks Kurn,
JT

[MortalNuts]

Thanks for the replies, everyone.

I thought this was an interesting hand, and I posted it because I really wasn't sure of my analysis.

I agree that betting out on the flop is very questionable here.

Once it's two bets back to me, I figured UTG2 for either a set, AT, or possibly a strong draw (QJh or something). LMP has certainly played consistently with an overpair to this flop, though a set of Ts, or something like AKh are also possible (imho).

I have the 4 obvious outs (nines), though only 3 of them may be clean. Who counts the 8 outs here, and who doesn't? I don't think there's any really great reason to put either of my opponents on a set of Ts -- if UTG2 has a set, I think 6s or 7s are more likely given his PF limp; plus, even if LMP would raise PF with pocket Ts, he's still more likely to have one of JJ/QQ/KK/AA, all of which I think he would've played this way.

Anyway, point is I have something between 3 and 6 outs (plus the backdoor straight flush, which I didn't really take into account). I'm getting about 8:1 from the pot, which is less than the odds I need for a 4-outer, about what I need for a 5-outer, and more than I need for 6.

The interesting question to me was whether my implied odds are good in this kind of situation (i.e., I can call taking slightly the worst of it, because I figure to make it up later), or negative (I'm going to have to call a lot of expensive bets, possibly without knowing where I really stand, particularly if a heart falls or the board pairs).

I figured the latter, which coupled with my take that I might have only 5 clean outs, made this a pretty clear fold to me. If I had thought that neither UTG2 nor LMP would cap, that both would be passive on the turn and river, *and* that they'd both pay me off if I hit my hand, I might've stayed in. But I didn't think any of those things were true.

So there ya go. Let me have it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Oh, wait, the results: UTG2 did cap the flop, LMP called. Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG2 bets out, LMP calls. River: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] same action. UTG2 had pocket 6s for the full boat, LMP had pocket Js.