Holdem backdoor flush draw pot odds

Depraved · #1 11-09-2003, 05:44 AM

I know how to calculate the pot odds for the mainstream draws, but I've been thinking about backdoor flush draws recently. I've found the chances of making a flush with 3 to a flush on the flop to be about 5%. Please tell me if this is wrong.

So I was wondering if that means you need 19-1 pot odds on the flop to proceed with the draw? I don't believe that is the case...

The issue of whether you'll see the river card for free is also in play I suppose - I'm just not confident in how I should go about the calculation so I thought I'd ask the probability experts.

Bozeman · #2 11-09-2003, 02:33 PM

I get 4.2% to make it by the river (10/47*9/46), for 23:1 odds (roughly equivalent to 2 outs if you will get to see the river for free).

Craig

Depraved · #3 11-09-2003, 05:18 PM

Yeah - that's exactly what I got, but at 23-1, I don't think I've ever had the right pot odds to call for a backdoor flush draw! I don't do it much, but for some reason, I never imagined I needed that much to call!

Of course there are time when I have other outs, but sometimes I don't. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Bozeman · #4 11-09-2003, 05:58 PM

Yup, never call with just a backdoor flush draw. You essentially always need at least also overcard outs.

Craig