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  #1  
Old 10-30-2003, 05:35 PM
Ace-Korea Ace-Korea is offline
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Default R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

If you got a minute, let me tell you what happened to me and then I'll ask you a question at the end.

About three months ago, I wanted to learn how to play poker. It seemed like everyone knew how to play it except moi. So I went to this web site and learned the basic rules for 5-card draw poker. It was difficult for me to remember all the rankings (e.g. whether straight is better or flush is better), but I got the basic picture.

Then I played Hold 'em at Yahoo! Games. (They didn't have 5-card draw.) For a couple of days, I kept losing (play money), but I quickly caught on. About after 2-3 days, I started winning on a consistent basis. And then I thought to myself, 'Hey, maybe I could make money by playing this game for real money.' Oops!

Anyway, I found an online poker site (I'll leave it as anonymous for now) and started to play for REAL money. Now, this was exactly one week after I learned how to play poker.

I don't know whether it was beginner's luck or what, but I kept winning. I started to play on a Thursday afternoon, and I kept winning until Sunday. (So my winning sessions lasted for two and a half days.)

And then, on Sunday, I lost everything. And then some more. (Much more actually...)

So here's my question to you. If the game was not rigged, how much money do you think I could have won assuming that all my opponents were terrible at poker and I was lucky every single time?

I played at $5/$10, $10/20, $20/$40 tables, both short-handed (6 total) and full ring table (10 total).

The amount of deposit I made was $50.00.

I played for 2.5 days and I'm almost positive that I didn't play more than 3 hours per day. (So less than 10 hours of total playing time.) I only played one table at a time.

I was totally a beginner. I didn't read any poker books or articles on poker. (For god's sakes, I didn't even know an Ace could be used to make the lowest straight, A2345.)

So how much do you think I won? (I'll post the answer later.)
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  #2  
Old 10-30-2003, 05:52 PM
pudley4 pudley4 is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

[ QUOTE ]
I played at $5/$10, $10/20, $20/$40 tables, both short-handed (6 total) and full ring table (10 total)...less than 10 hours of total playing time.

If the game was not rigged, how much money do you think I could have won assuming that all my opponents were terrible at poker and I was lucky every single time?



[/ QUOTE ]

Several thousand dollars.

[ QUOTE ]
So how much do you think I won?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll guess $4,500 (but won't be terribly surprised if it's many thousands more)
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  #3  
Old 10-30-2003, 05:59 PM
Gabe Gabe is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

$7500?
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  #4  
Old 10-30-2003, 06:05 PM
tomcain tomcain is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

Here are my thoughts and I only started playing a few weeks ago myself, although I certainly knew basic poker.

The play money tables are very different than real money tables. They are very loose, to say the least. I was up many thousands before I started with a .10/.25 real table.

It is certainly gutsy to start at a $5/$10 table. I still have not hit one of those. I would say you hit a very lucky streak, although prolonged.

I have seen other people wonder about the same thing, but for losing instead of winning. I don't see that the online games have any benefit to rigging anything. They only make money if you continue to play.

Good luck. Tom
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  #5  
Old 10-30-2003, 06:51 PM
daryn daryn is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

so.. why do you think it's rigged, because you won, or because you lost?

this post makes no sense..

next.
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  #6  
Old 10-30-2003, 07:31 PM
squiffy squiffy is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

It doesn't matter how much you won or lost. You did not play enough hands to make a statistically reliable determination about your playing ability.

If I got to the roulette tables and bet $1 million on 0 and win twice in a row. That's not enough data to know whether the wheel is rigged.

If I won 50 times in a row. Well, yeah, you've gotta start wondering if the wheel is rigged. That outcome is so unlikely statistically.

If you play for a few days at high limits, you could win a huge amount even if you are playing like an idiot.

And yes, out of 50 online poker sites. Some could very well be rigged.

With poker tracker, or some similar program, a reasonably proficient computer person could probably tell you if the flops and exposed hole cards at showdowns exhibit randomness.

But saying that you played for 2.5 days, tells us almost nothing.

Unless you flopped 100 straight royal flushes in that time. Or unless you can show that there is a distinct non-random pattern to the cards dealt out to players.

You can theorize all you want. But you have presented zero data and the data which you claim to have, will in all likelihood be an insufficient sampling to render any kind of realiable assessment.
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  #7  
Old 10-30-2003, 09:50 PM
chesspain chesspain is offline
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Default Re: R U Really sure online poker is not rigged?

[ QUOTE ]
...how much money do you think I could have won assuming that all my opponents were terrible at poker and I was lucky every single time?


[/ QUOTE ]

I assume the answer would be "An infinate amount of money."
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  #8  
Old 10-31-2003, 09:51 AM
irchans irchans is offline
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Default Unlikely

Estimate of how much you could have won

Assuming that you played mostly 20/40 short handed for 2.5*3 = 7.5 hours, the most that you are likely to have won is

3*sigma*Sqrt[hours]*maxbet
= 3 * 30 * Sqrt[7.5] * 40
= $10,000

(My estimate for sigma is an upper bound based on the fact that heads up play can have an hourly standard deviation of 30 BB per sqrt-hour.)

The probability of winning $10,000 before losing $50 to equally skilled opponents is 0.5%.





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  #9  
Old 11-01-2003, 01:33 AM
Ace-Korea Ace-Korea is offline
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Default I won $2,752 with a $50 deposit

Wow, I can't believe you guys think that the variance could be that high (or SHOULD it be?). With my rough calculations, I won about 20 big bets per hour (on average) for 2.5 days at $10/$20 table. I guess IT IS possible, especially since the number of sessions was very low. I guess I'm just having a hard time letting it go since I totally sucked back then.

Anyways, thank you all for your comments. I'm downloading Pokertracker right now, so when I dig up some hand histories, I'll post it here for you guys to see.

Happy Holloween.
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  #10  
Old 11-01-2003, 02:31 AM
Copernicus Copernicus is offline
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Default Re: I won $2,752 with a $50 deposit

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm just having a hard time letting it go since I totally sucked back then.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you dont almost totally suck now then you underestimate the complexity of hold em.
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