Folding rockets

[PokerholicAnonymous]

I posted this in the NL/PL Hold'em section and was advised to repost it here.

I can't see it ever being correct to fold pocket rockets preflop in ring play, but what about in a tournament? At first thought it seems ridiculous, but is it? I did the other day and it turned out to be the right move, that time. This is what happened: I was playing a $10/1 2-table NL Hold'em tournament. We were down to the final 5 players where only 4 got paid. I was in 5th and on the small blind. The player under the gun, generally solid and in 4th place, opens for a slightly larger than pot-size raise. The next guy, who is the chip leader and very aggressive, goes all-in. The button thinks and thinks and then calls. I'm next with aces, in last place (but only barely), and suspect the first raiser will call. So in the spirit of self-preservation, though every poker-bone in my body said call, I folded. The cards were: Under the gun had a-q of hearts, chip-leader had 9-9, and button had k-k. Of course I was a big favorite against any one of them, and even a 5-4 favorite against all of them, but is 5-4 worth all my chips? I didn't think so then, and I don't now. The flop was j-7-7, which had me gritting my teeth, but only for a moment as the turn brought a 9, and the river a rag, so the chip-leader doubled up and then some, and I was in 3rd on my way to finishing in 2nd. Any comments from the peanut gallery on this move?

[lorinda]

Two instances from my play spring to mind, I didn't fold either but should have folded both.

Paradise sng:

Stacks:

Player 1: 4000
Player 2: 3300
Player 3: 670
Lorinda : 30

Huge blinds (approximate numbers given) player 3 raises all in. I call without thinking on button, Big blind makes his forced call and wins, putting me out 4th.


Stars sat for something 21 seats, 23 players.

Average stack 15k, Lorinda 12k (plenty)

Lorinda in sb raises, bb folds, I realise after the pot that I have to fold to a reraise here as I am guaranteed qualification.

(Again, approximate numbers before someone works out that a 21 seat sat doesnt have average 15k with 23 players left)

Lori

[Inthacup]

Do you play tournaments to win or to eek into the money?

[ZeeJustin]

It's hard to say without knowing the exact stack sizes, but from the way you talked about the hand, it seems like you should have called. You aren't a 5-4 favorite to double up. You are a 5-4 favorite to quadruple up. Depending on your stack size, that could make you a huge favorite to win the whole thing. Also, there is still a chance that if you fold that no one will be knocked out. That would be a huge disaster for you.

[CrackerZack]

Depending on the payout structure and what you konw of hte players. If the money is heavily weighted in the top 2, its a bad move as you have got to think the button has the best hand here and UTG/chip leader are 50/50 over who is winning (this is before seeing the hands) due to his aggressiveness. Depending on the button's chip count compared to UTG's, its very conceivable that the button will triple up, but no one will be knocked out. Then the chip leader is on your left. If this is the case you need to move in. If the button has the chip count to take out UTG and seriously cripple the chip leader, and the money is big in 2nd, then a fold isn't that wrong. Although difficult.

[PokerholicAnonymous]

First: Chip stacks were roughly...UTG (A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])had 3000, chip-leader (9-9) had 9500, button (K-K) had 7000, I (A-A) had 2500, and the big blind (folded) had 5000. So quadrupling up would've given me about 10000 of the 27000 chips, a good lead but no sure thing.

Second: Do I play to win or just eek into the money? Well, to win of course. But playin' a-a against 3 all-ins is a coin flip, and coin flip-players are the type who pay ME. Quadrupling up on 5-4 odds is something you have to do in a ring game, but I'm confident I can move up in chips once I'm in the money so why risk not gettin' there in the first place. After the hand the chip-leader had 20700, 2nd had 4200, and I had 2100. I doubled up on a flush a couple hands later and then watched the maniac take out the other player with a trash 2-pair on his blind. 2nd was much better than 5th, I think.

[Homer]

I posted this in the NL/PL Hold'em section and was advised to repost it here.

Why would someone advise you to repost this here when it clearly belongs in either the PL/NL or Tournament forum?

-- Homer

[Adde]

I can't see it ever being correct to fold pocket rockets preflop in ring play

Well, think again... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Actually, it is possible to construct the pocket cards at a table with 9 players, where the correct move would be to throw your rockets away, if we assume that all players are super-loose and will be around to showdown. With win percentages taken from a combinatoric run in PokerCalculator:

Player1: AcAs (8.67%)
Player2: 2c3c (4.46%)
Player3: 4s5s (9.58%)
Player4: 6d7d (11.97%)
Player5: 8h9h (13.03%)
Player6: TcJc (18.43%)
Player7: QsKs (17.34%)
Player8: Ad2d (8.23%)
Player9: Ah2h (8.29%)

This might not be the most "efficent" solution. Maybe a different construction would show an even less win percentage for AA, perhaps also with less players.

David Sklansky? Mason Malmuth? Anyone else? Care to do the math?


adde

[Adde]

Bad news for pocket rockets! Beware when the flop attracts 6 players, the board may very well look like below and you, Player1, will be a longrun sucker. You might as well drop your rocks every time, it's just not worth it anymore! Cruel world...

Player1: AcAs (15.73%)
Player2: AdAh (18.35%)
Player3: 2c2s (15.35%)
Player4: 6c6s (21.78%)
Player5: 7c7s (17.69%)
Player6: 8c8s (11.09%)


adde

[PokerholicAnonymous]

If everyone was playing with open hands, and showed these hands down, then I'd fold, and then I'd go play PowerBall. The likelihood of everybody having suited connectors is so slim that it isn't a consideration. But, nonetheless, the chart illustrates well the Achilles' heel of rockets.