Hitting a Boat w 33: Am I destined to loose money?

[Foldarama_City]

Hi, I was just mucking around with some left over change on Party. What do I do on a hand like this? Just accept my losses?

0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Thu Oct 23 10:59:19 EDT 2003
Table Against All Odds (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: GSUSoccer5 ( $6)
Seat 3: nyilmaz ( $53.95)
Seat 4: chibby ( $88.30)
Seat 5: ElwoodPDowd9 ( $48.45)
Seat 6 : AcesforKen ( $25)
Seat 8: betzz ( $26.50)
Seat 10: Noaaah ( $14)
ElwoodPDowd9 posts small blind (0.25)
AcesforKen posts big blind (0.50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Noaaah [ 3h, 3d ]
betzz folds.
Noaaah calls (0.50)
GSUSoccer5 folds.
nyilmaz calls (0.50)
ElwoodPDowd9 calls (0.25)
AcesforKen checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Td, Jd, 3c ]
ElwoodPDowd9 checks.
AcesforKen checks.
Noaaah bets (2)
nyilmaz calls (2)
ElwoodPDowd9 folds.
AcesforKen folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Tc ]
Noaaah bets (5)
nyil maz raises (10) to 10
Noaaah raises (6.50) to 11.50
Noaaah calls all-In.
nyilmaz calls (1.50)
** Dealing River ** : [ Qc ]
Creating Main Pot with $27.55 with Noaaah
** Summary **
Main Pot: $27.55 | | Rake: $1.45
Board: [ Td Jd 3c Tc Qc ]
GSUSoccer5 balance $6, didn't bet (folded)
nyilmaz balance $67.50, bet $14, collected $27.55, net +$13.55 [ Ts Jh ] [
a full house, Tens full of jacks -- Jh,Jd,Ts,Td,Tc ]
ElwoodPDowd9 balance $47.95, lost $0.50 (folded)
AcesforKen balance $24.50, lost $0.50 (folded)
betzz balance $26.50, didn't bet (folded)
Noaaah balance $0, lost $14 [ 3h 3d ] [ a full house, Threes full of tens
-- Td,Tc,3h,3d,3c ]

[spoody]

hard not to lose money on that, but you do have the wrong end of the boat. You probably were not going to run into a T3 but JT is a hand most people play, so seeing a boat come from that with what was on the board cannot be all that surprising. When I see paired high cards along with an adjacent high card on the board, I at least consider that my opponent may have a big boat (probably paranoid from too much Omaha). But I probably would play my hand the same way...I mean you got a set then a boat from your 33.

+++Theoretical Thought+++ I know you would lose to a flush or straight if you did not have a boat, but I wonder if the best thing to have with a pocket pair is really just a set (or of course 4 of a kind) and not a boat because of this exact scenario. With a set you would need set over set to get beat badly(flush and straight are pretty easy to spot) but going against another boat is tough, and laying a boat down is even harder....anyone with thoughts?

Spoody

[Zag]

With only 28 Big blinds in your stack, you are going to lose it all in this case. If you had 200 big blinds, then it is possible you might get away from this hand losing only 70 or so. So don't lose sleep over it -- sometimes you have a good hand and get beat. You could easily have been ahead of AT with the same betting.

I actually find it somewhat freeing to say to myself: If he has XYZ, then he gets my whole stack this hand, 'cause I'm going do what I can to go all in and take him with me. This was just such a situation. (That is, given the stack sizes -- with a much bigger stack, you wouldn't say that to yourself.)

[Jon Matthews]

Q T T J 3 is a crap board for you if you hold 33 but you weren't to know that at the time and i would have played it almost the same way. I would have more than likely overbet the pot on the flop due to the likelihood of two pair then because he isn't going to fold and it will be easier to get it all in on the turn then. Even if I suspected JT on the turn I'd still push for this money.

Jon.

[Che]

I'll take the boat every time.

Consider the board from the original post with the turn changed from Tc to 2d. We now have [ Td Jd 3c 2d Qc ].

With a set, I'm not happy facing a flush on the turn (not to mention a straight on the river). The chance of any 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s or T9 (or even AK) being there are much greater than the chance of an opponent having exactly JT.

Also, I agree that straight and flush *possibilities* are easy to spot, but one or both happen on virtually every hand that goes to the river. So, with a set you usually have to consider several ways your opponent could be beating you, while your boat can usually only lose to one, maybe two, possibilities (which are frequently unlikely, like the T3 in the original post).

Unfortunately, I've never actually been offered the choice in a live situation. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[tewall]

If you have top set which turns into a boat, you don't (usually) have to worry about anything. If you have top set, you still have to worry about straights and flushes.

[spoody]

I agree with your assesment of top set v boat, but he had bottom set and bottom boat. . So, what about pocket pairs 8 and below...or even just the really small ones like 55,44,33,22. usually now when the board pairs you are going to have the small side of the boat. The higher the paired card the more likely someone will be holding it, and if 2 or 3 cards (all overcards for you) are in the "playing zone" (caffione term) you could really be in trouble. Maybe you still win more with any boat v any set, but a small boat compared to a small set seem to each have their problems. With the set problems being more obvious unless you have set over set, whereas big boat can come out of nowhere to really suck your money away.

Probably not as important a thought in Holdem as Omaha where unless you got the nuts, you want to be a tad careful.

Spoody

[tewall]

This seems similar to having small connectors and a flush hits. You'll occasionally be out-flushed by someone, but the flush still makes money. I don't know how the odds of being out-boated would compare to being out-flushed (I would guess the danger of being out boated would be higher), but would think the principle applies that it would still make money. Still this type of thing is one of the reasons to be more careful with small pairs. They need better conditions than big pairs to enter the fray.