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#1
10-17-2003, 05:49 PM
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I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
Hey all,
Paradise 1/2 NLHE. I've got a stack of around $350, my primary opponent has me covered. He is a good, aggressive player who knows that I am capable of laying down a hand. The game has gone suddenly gone short-handed, and I get A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. CO open-limps, I raise to $10, BB calls, CO folds. Heads-up; the flop comes: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] He checks, I bet $16, he calls. Turn comes: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] He checks, I bet $35, he calls. River comes: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He moves all-in; there is about $125 in the pot and I have $267 left. Call or fold? ML4L 
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#2
10-17-2003, 06:03 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
Here's a mathematical answer. I'll round your 267 down to 250 to make it easier.
His best uninformed bluffing strategy is to bluff 2/5 of the time (which is 250/625). Your best uninformed calling strategy is to call 1/3 of the time (125/375). If you will call his bluffs less than 1/3 of the time in this situation, then his bluffs will make a profit. If you think there is a better than 40% chance he is bluffing, you should call. If you think it's worse than 40%, you should fold. If you're not sure, you should call 1/3 of the time.
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#3
10-17-2003, 06:23 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
In this situation, what could he have? he's not gonna call the raise preflop without decent cards, so it is unlikely he has a set or two pairs. He's also not gonna call those bets with 89 hoping for the gutshot. He might have 89s trying for spades, but again - is he gonna call ten bucks preflop with that?.
On the river, I'd consider a set of kings or pair of aces a possibility. He might slowplay kings or aces before the flop hoping for a raiser. Then he lets you bet it all the way. Not how I'd do it, but some guys play like that. It just seems like too much money to run a bluff with, especially with you betting strong the whole way, and so few scary cards on the board. There is no flush, an unlikely straight, and a lot of very unlikely sets and two-pairs. Unless he's a bad player and doesn't realize how obvious a bluff would be here, he could only have AA, KK, or (doubtfully) 77 or 89s. These all have you beat. I'd fold
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#4
10-17-2003, 06:35 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
"Unless he's a bad player and doesn't realize how obvious a bluff would be here ..."
I like your analysis, but don't get this sentence. You've just argued why a bluff wouldn't be obvious. It's not a bad player that's likely to try a bluff here, but a good player. A good player might try it precisely because it's not expected, and he'd try it against another good player who would realize that and have a good enough chance to lay down his hand to make it worthwhile.
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#5
10-17-2003, 07:01 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
Now for a non-mathematical answer. I agree with Shub314 that you should fold for two reasons.
First of all, there's a principle that says that when a person's latter actions are inconsistent with the former actions, the latter are more likely to be correct. The second is if you ask the question, why is he all of a sudden betting?, the answer that pops into my head is he's afraid you won't bet if he checks (and you probably wouldn't). So he's betting hoping to get paid. I don't think there's a 40% chance he's bluffing.
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#6
10-17-2003, 11:13 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
Quiz.
Fold (10). Call (7). His quiz is player dependant though, but your opponent bet the river instead of checking, that gives him some credit. Prize for knowning the quiz maker.
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#7
10-17-2003, 11:18 PM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
Yeah. Good Point. Still, I wouldn't consider this a possibility unless I knew the player and he knew me, and he had enough respect to think I could lay down the best hand following that line of reasoning with that board. That may be the situation in this example, I don't know. I am curious what happened in this example - ML4L, what did he have? Did you fold?
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#8
10-18-2003, 12:45 AM
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Re: I\'ve Asked Before, But Now I\'m Begging... (NLHE)
I think it would take a very good player to pull this off. Assuming there's nothing to draw at, the person would have to have had this plan from the get go. His plan would be to check twice, let the person bet at him twice, and then take the pot away from him at the river, and expect that that line of play would pay off. That would be quite a feat! A much more common variation of this would be to check/call the flop and then check/raise the turn.
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