Did Jackpots kill my game?

[Theodore Donald Kiravatsos]

One of the (2) major cardrooms where I live closed this year. What follows below is an email I sent to my pals who played with me there. I used an analysis similar to something John Feeney put down in his book (with sincere apologies if I've corrupted or misapplied the logic)...I was interested to see its implications for my old stomping grounds. Note: This was a decent sized cardroom, almost 30 tables, many games and many limits.

Let's do the math.

Sometimes as many as 4 low-limit tables for HE, and 4 Omaha. I'm only talking 3-6 here, not any of the other limits. Add the 2-6,6 stud game if you think my estimates of table-hours is too high (see below).

Let's say that of these, there were 4 tables total, full, for 12 hours a day. This should balance out the slow hours in the AM (less tables), and the busy hours (more tables).

Let's say each hand takes 2 minutes.
Let's say that the average drop was $3, but went to $3.75, once they added $1 for jackpots (max rake used to be $4, but it was $5 in January when we were there)

That means that the average drop went up by $.75 per hand.

4 tables x (30 hands / hour) x (12 hours / day) x $0.75 * (30 days / month) x 1 month
= $32,400 per month

That is money taken from the fishes, the hacks, the goons, the cowboys, the jimmys, and you and me, to go to the bad beat jackpot.

That is the same as 30 winning players coming in to beat up on the games for $1000 a month.

Do you think this may have been at the root of players tapping out?
Do you think that the games may have suffered as a result of the worst players tapping out?
Does it then follow that the games were not as good for the rest of us after that?
Would that not lead more players to quit the game, or frequenting the cardroom?
Would that not make the games overall less "healthy" (erosion of player base)?
Does this not seem like a downward spiral?

Is there any wonder now why the poker room closed? I submit that this is a bigger factor than Casino XYZ opening up in what happened....

Conclusion:
The game is a fragile thing. Blackjack and craps can exist in a vacuum, but Poker is more like a living organism. Change the environment and you may get results that are undesirable or unintended. Start giving your favorite plant about half the water it requires for about a month and see if it doesn't look horrid.


Just fishing for comments here...

"Your excuses are your own" -- Richard Roma