How much do I bet on the river? 5-5 NLHE

[Ulysses]

5-5 NLHE. I have everyone covered. The other guys in this hand have $1000-1200.

3 limpers for $10 each.

I'm in BB w/ TT. I feel like raising, so I make it $40. Everyone calls.

Flop is Q84 w/ two of some suit. I check. Checked around.

Turn is an offsuit 2. I'm pretty sure I have the best hand. I bet $150. One calling station (who earlier called my 50 JJ open-raise w/ A9s [he had $220 total] then called my $150 pot bet on the Q94 flop, catching a 9 on the turn) calls.

I think I'm most likely still ahead. I plan to check the river until I see an offsuit 10. I put him squarely on either an 8 or Queen-crap.

He makes terrible calls w/ weak made hands and big draws, but doesn't make terrible calls w/ gutshots. He doesn't have J9 unless he has exactly J9s w/ the flush draw on the flop. I'll happily take that chance and go all-in w/ him. He's capable of laying down a medium-strength hand to a big bet.

$450 or so in the pot. He has $800 left. How much do I bet?

[Ulysses]

OK, I bet $250. How does that feel?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you check, how likely is it that he bets for you? And if he bets, how much is that likely to be? If there's a good chance he will bet, then check.

If the bet seems like the best play, I like the bet you chose, $250. It's small enough and big enough, and doesn't look suspicious (unless you typically bet a lot more in a spot like this).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check, how likely is it that he bets for you? And if he bets, how much is that likely to be? If there's a good chance he will bet, then check.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's pretty passive. If he has what I think he has (8 or weak Queen), he'll check behind. The only hand I can imagine him having that he might check the flop with and bet the river is exactly QT, which is obviously unlikely.

[jen]

I don't like the $40 raise. It's too small to give yourself a chance to win outright pre-flop or act as an effective isolation raise. Alternatively, if you want to play to flop a set multi-way, then you want to get in as cheaply as possible. The $40 falls somewhere right in-between.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the $40 raise. It's too small to give yourself a chance to win outright pre-flop or act as an effective isolation raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect everyone to call this raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Alternatively, if you want to play to flop a set multi-way, then you want to get in as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheap's relative, right?

Let's say I'm playing to flop a set. Am I more likely to get someone's whole stack when there's $40 in the pot pre-flop or $160?

Let's say I'm planning to bet a rag flop. Am I more likely to take it down limping in and betting the $40 pot or raising and betting $200 on the flop?

There were many reasons I wanted to raise pre-flop against this lineup. Winning outright or isolating were not among them. Mainly, I'm trying to win a lot of money.

[The Gift Of Gab]

I have to agree with Jen on this one. Only against the most passive sheep imaginable would I want to play a big pot out of position with TT. Much of the time an overcard will appear and you'll be in the unenviable spot of handing a large field a free card or making a bet that will likely be called only if you're beaten.

There's nothing wrong with raising, but with a middle pair I want to raise an amount that will thin the field down (maybe to just the livest one) or win it right there. I usually raise around 150% of the pot from the blinds. Charge them to play a big pot with position on you.

As for your actual question I would have bet 300, but maybe I'm just greedy.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to agree with Jen on this one. Only against the most passive sheep imaginable would I want to play a big pot out of position with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Manny, Sam (Manny's aggressive friend), and Freddy were all out already at this point. They were the only three I cared about. Calling station old-man, Rounders-guy, and one other passive sheep were in. I didn't mind putting $30 more into the pot w/ them in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
Much of the time an overcard will appear and you'll be in the unenviable spot of handing a large field a free card or making a bet that will likely be called only if you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you called this one right. An overcard did appear and I did have to hand out what should have been a costly free card. But I'll contend that the way the hand played out illustrates why I don't think it was a terrible play against this field.

[ QUOTE ]
thin the field down (maybe to just the livest one) or win it right there. I usually raise around 150% of the pot from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, maybe I was getting too greedy. I knew you were getting moved over soon, though, so I had to make some money fast. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
As for your actual question I would have bet 300, but maybe I'm just greedy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew he had some kind of hand when he called my turn bet. And I could easily have a flush draw or AK at that point. I narrowed my choices to 250-350 or all-in on the river.

What do you think of all-in? If he has J9, it doesn't matter, since I'll call an all-in raise from him anyway. But maybe I get called sometimes by someone with not that much who feels the check, slightly less than pot, 2x pot betting pattern is fishy? I wasn't sure if he would think enough to think that I might have missed everything when I bet all-in. Maybe I'm just being results-oriented....

[jen]

"I expect everyone to call this raise."

Fundamentally, I just disagree with this. Ts play the worst against three or four players out of position. You want to win outright, play heads-up or play multi-way for cheap. If you think that everyone's going to call your raise, then you should either limp or raise more.

" Let's say I'm playing to flop a set. Am I more likely to get someone's whole stack when there's $40 in the pot pre-flop or $160? Let's say I'm planning to bet a rag flop. Am I more likely to take it down limping in and betting the $40 pot or raising and betting $200 on the flop?"

That's the beauty of NL vs pot-limit. In NL, you don't have to manipulate the pre-flop pot size in order to bet more on later streets.

[Vehn]

I wouldn't have raised preflop I don't think. I don't think it matters much. I despise raising a bunch here though as it ties you to the pot if called, etc etc. What happens if you raise the pot or overbet the pot by $25 or so and everyone falls in love with their KQo and A7s and calls? Now you're really screwed in a big pot with a typical flop (1 overcard).

I would have bet the flop for sure against 3 limpers and gone with my read after this if called. Why did you "have" to check here? When you check even mildly passive opponents will bet their 8 and then what?

On the river with some blank (like a 3) I would have bet around $100 and expect to get paid off by worse hands and not raised by better ones (weak Q). I wouldn't check though.

When I hit the set on the river I bet $200ish and pray for a call.