KK in the big blind - facing a big raise

[cruiser]

Playing 1/2 NL online.
Dealt KK in the big blind. 2 callers to guy in mid/late position who makes it 30. Folded to me.

Question 1 -
1. fold
2. call
3. raise

(relevant stack sizes : me about 150, him about 250).

Ok - for the sake of discussion. I called. My thought process was (a) i was hoping to get at least one of the limpers to come along if I got a favorable flop and (b) i would make any move on the flop if I hit something.

I put him on a JJ - AA or maybe as low as AK, AQ.

Flop :
Q - 6 - 2 (2 diamonds).

Question 2:
check or bet - and if you check - how to handle his bet?

my course of action to follow.....

[cruiser]

I thought the flop was somewhat favorable (basically no Ace). I had decided if the flop had no huge draws and no Ace - I would play on agressively (mistake #1?).

I checked the flop - He bet 20 into a pot of about 70. I figured he would bet regardless of the flop. If he had AK, AQ,10-10, or JJ - I was way ahead. If he had QQ or AA i was hurting.

I didn't think I could fold, but wasn't sure about calling or raising. In hindsight I think I misplayed it.

I raised all-in after his bet of 20. I figured calling or raising the min to 40 was basically committing me to the pot - and I was content in taking the pot right then and there if possible.

anyway, i went all-in, he called.

Turn: J
River : x

He turned over AA and I lost a big pot.

In gerneral I'm having trouble figuring out if this is just one of those hands you're destined to go broke on, or if there was a course of action to at least minimize my losses...

[NLfool]

Ok so the buyin is $100 max you've had time to build it to $150 you should have some pertinent info about this player. Now in real life the chances of AA vs KK is roughly 1 in ~620 give or take. I've played way more than 620 live hands and have had KK and run into AA once. Online I've seen KK vs. AA four times in less than 3 hours. I didn't play more than 500 hands as I was trying to clear my bonus and was roughly at 350 raked hands when I finished my session. Being as it may I'd call the flop and bet like $20 telling or shouting out to him I've got a piece of the flop. If he is overbetting preflop he will overbet post flop also so you can't catch trips to the top pair you're representing or your supposed kicker. If he overbets you're done. You can save you money for better situations.

[crockpot]

i do not believe calling should even be an option here pre-flop. if any ace flops, you will probably have to fold what might very well be the best hand. if your opponent doesn't have a pair (unlikely, but possible) he is quite unlikely to make a hand good enough to pay you off but not beat you. and if you have him beat, you want to make him pay for the chance to outdraw you. if the flop comes with a jack or queen (maybe even a ten), how will you know whether he has made his set or not? playing this hand correctly on the flop is going to be difficult on a large percentage of the flops.

i believe this is simple math. the blinds and callers are pretty much irrelevant to your stack sizes. push in if you think the chances of him having aces are less than 50%, fold otherwise. players who will make it 30 to go preflop and then fold to a reraise are very rare (although he may fold a hand like AJ, AQ, or AK; and this result is better than letting him have three free cards to catch an ace.)

as to how you're supposed to figure these odds out, this is why you need to get as good a read on your opponents as you can. if this is the first time i've seen him make a big pre-flop raise (or if he's turned over aces or kings every other time i've seen it), i would be quite inclined to fold.

[ML4L]

Hey cruiser,

Crocksucker's post is a perfect explanation of why this is a clear raise/fold preflop.

The only point about which my opinion differs is the action that I would take. Even though there is a chance that he has AA, I would reraise all-in. I see enough players make this type of raise with hands other than AA that, until I have evidence to the contrary, my "default" play is to go all-in.

ML4L

[cruiser]

Yeah...I felt the whole time I wasn't exactly sure how I should be playing it....If I had the best hand, like I said, I hoped to get paid off by the original raiser and maybe even a limper. Re-raising all in pre-flop would surely at best get me heads up with the raiser. Probably folding hands like AK, AQ and maybe even JJ, QQ.

Thanks for the help. I guess this one one of the times I was destined to lose - but I don't think I can put all preflop raisers on AA. I would def say less than 50% would have AA, so a re-raise preflop is prob the best course. Of course there is always the fold option since i'm out of position and could be behind...I'm just not sure that is good EV or not....

thanks again guys.

[limon]

due to the stack sizes I believe the only raise is all in and this raise puts your opponent in a position where he cannot make a mistake. if he has aces he calls you. any other hand he throws away (do players really call a $120 raise here with QQ or AK? definately not with AQ or JJ). i call here and check raise all in a flop with no ace now any overpair is sure to call and get busted these are the same hands that could have gotten away preflop, now they're stuck. If an ace comes i bet out moderate and fold to a raise. if i'm in against AA i get busted no matter what but if im in with a lesser hand i win more playing this way.

[tewall]

It's only true that the opponent is spared from making a mistake (assuming he will fold hands such as QQ and worse) if the poster never bluffs. Assuming the opponent will raise 30 pre-flop with AA-JJ and AK, then bluffing will be close to break even if the opponent will call with AA and KK. If the opponent will also fold KK, or will also raise all-in with some other hands, then bluffing will be very profitable.

If your assumption that the opponent will fold hands worse than KK is correct, then a good strategy would be to re-raise with AA and some other hands as a bluff, and play KK as you have outlined.

If the opponent plays in such a way that bluffing will not be profitable, then re-raising KK will certainly be +EV.

[limon]

i've been playin big bet for a long time, you have to think much more dynamically if you are going to succeed in this game. an all in re-raise pre flop bluff is NEVER a good idea. If you're in a game where you need to make plays like this to survive your game selection is sooo bad you will go broke VERY quick. so taking that out of the question, noticing there is no way the limpers can call even $30 to take a flop with the stack sizes in question my play is still the best. i dunno nuthin' bout no ev but i've made this play for years and it works. i hate to even give such good advice to on line stiffs.

[crockpot]

if you are facing an opponent who will throw away anything but aces, as you say, then you must concede that an all-in semi-bluff can be profitable here if he will make the initial raise with a variety of hands. you cannot have it both ways. pick a position and stick with it.