Take My Winnings to Victoria's Secret? (NLHE)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

1/2 Paradise. I have around $260, my primary opponent is the only one who has me covered... A little about him: he is loose-aggressive and capable of bluffing, but definitely not a maniac.

Anyway, he raises to $8 UTG (he would do this with a wide range of hands), next player calls, and then I'm next to act with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I reraise to $40, all fold back to UTG, who thinks for a bit and calls, as does the coldcaller. 3 to the flop, $120 in the pot. The flop comes:

J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG thinks for about 15 seconds before going all-in. EP folds, now it's on me (I have about $225 left). Call or fold?

ML4L

[Trefo]

What could he have........trips......flush draw....or AJ....I call. According to his table image he could very well be bluffing but most likely he's trying to win the hand right there. CAll is the play. If he does get trips you still have a two outs left.

[Zag]

I'm still trying to figure out your title. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

This depends as much on how you play, or at least on how he perceives that you play. Preflop, raising to $35 would have been a pot-sized bet, so you have overbet the pot a little. Would you do this with anything less than aces? Are you someone who can lay down your aces? Does he know it?

You say that he would make the $8 bet UTG with a wide range of hands, but you don't say how wide. If it is only AA-JJ and AKs, then you could easily be in trouble. After all, with AA or KK he probably would have reraised preflop, leaving only QQ, JJ, and AKs, leaving you way ahead, way behind, and a little ahead, respectively.

If, on the other hand, he could have made the preflop raise (and call) with hands all the way down to AJs, then I would call his all in on the flop.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

When I say that this player could have a wide range of hands here, I mean a WIDE range of hands (any two suited, any ace, unsuited gappers, etc.)...

ML4L

[Robk]

I'd happily call.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Unless I know something about this player that tells me he very likely flopped a set, I call without hesitation. Also, there is nobody I know very well whom I wouldn't call here. AJ, even TJ, are MUCH more likely than JJ or another set for almost all players. QQ and even KK are another big possibility. Some players will flat-call the reraise preflop with these hands and see that no A hits the flop before committing the rest of their chips.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for the responses. My title alludes to the fact that I thought for a good while and then folded, because I'm a little girl... EP then showed Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as he took the pot.

I thought that this hand was similar in some ways to my AK post from earlier this week (which, incidentally, was met with under-whelming response [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]). One part of my game that I'm really trying to work on is when I should and should not get all my money in with an overpair (or AK when I flop TP,TK). Apparently, many of you feel as though this is one of those situations where I should...

My thinking was that was that he almost certainly had one of two hands: a flush draw or a set (with a slight chance of TT/QQ/KK). So, I was either a 3-2 favorite or an 11-1 dog. Given the size of the bet in relation to the size of the pot, I thought that a fold was reasonable. Later, I wrote out an EV formula with three variables: u, d, and s (the probabilities of him having an underpair, draw, and set). With u=0.1, d=0.45, and s=0.45, my fold was -$2.50 in EV, which made me feel a little better. My only question now is whether I overestimated the probability of him having a set...

Anyway, additional responses addressing the general issue of getting your money in on the flop with an overpair are welcome (in addition to critiques of my thought process). Thanks again.

ML4L

[hbk]

I honestly don't know many players who could make this fold , unless you know your opponent VERY well. Without wanting to be critical, if I was you I would seriously consider not playing NL cash if you are going to always think the worst possible scenario when someone makes a move on you, because you are going to be bluffed out of too many scarey boards.

[crockpot]

what kind of little girls do you know that spend their money at victoria's secret?

i sense some pedophilia going on here... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ramjam]

Dear ML4L

I think you have outthought yourself too quickly into a monsters-under-the-bed paralysis.

1) The principles of your EV calculation are fine - but the parameters seem way skewed. You start of with the assertion that this guy is loose aggressive and will raise with pretty much any two cards. But then proceed to the conclusion that it's 45% likely that (i) he had a pocket pair and (ii) he hit a set on the flop. One pair or nothing seem just as likely. Take the chance of a set down to 10 or 20%, bump up one pair to 20%, factor in a little for stone cold bluff, allocate the balance to flush draw (see 2 below) and I would guess your EV for calling looks a lot healthier.

2) Try to analyse the situation from his perspective. His style is consistently aggressive. If he believes there is a good chance you will lay down a strong hand under pressure, betting the max on a semi-bluff flush draw looks very attractive. There's $120 in the pot to steal. If he bets your stack size of $225 into it and gets called, he can count on roughly 1/3 equity in a pot of $570 = $190. Effectively he's risking an EV of -$35 if he's called to win $120 if you fold. If he thinks you'll fold just one time in four, he'll be making a profit on the play. When he bets out I would be much more inclined to believe he's on a flush draw than a stronger made hand.