Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-11-2003, 09:02 PM
revoohc revoohc is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 47
Default Help calculating odds after flop

I need some help trying to calculate odds.

I am working on my game using Wilsons Turbo Texas Holdem. Anyway, the system is running a $20/$40 game. I have a K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the small blind. 4 players see the flop.

When the betting returns to me after my initial check, the pot is at $287. The call is $60 which gives me pot odds of 4.78:1. I think I should fold, but I am having problem figuring out my card odds.

The flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

This gives me the following possibilities:
1. an inside straight (4 J's)
2. Backdoor flush (QJT9876532 of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])
3. Trips (A, K, Q, T, 4)
4. Two pairs
5. Pairs

Questions:

1. Do you count all of the possibilities?
2. How do you quickly calculate these sort of odds when playing?

Thanks,

revoohc
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 09-11-2003, 09:34 PM
Bozeman Bozeman is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: On the road again
Posts: 1,213
Default Re: Help calculating odds after flop

I would count just the jacks and one out for the backdoor flush, giving me 5 (you probably want to discount further since the jacks make a split possible or likely).

8.4:1 ?

If there will be no betting on the turn, you have about 10 one card equivalent outs (or five outs twice), so about 3.7:1 odds are needed.

So you could call if everyone was allin,
Craig
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 09-11-2003, 09:59 PM
ccwhoelse? ccwhoelse? is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: u rook rike charlie brown
Posts: 371
Default Re: Help calculating odds after flop

[ QUOTE ]
How do you quickly calculate these sort of odds when playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't. you should know some of the more common odds off hand and just know that long shot draws go a long way as far as adding to your chance of improving your hand to the best hand. so if a backdoor flush or an inside straight draw is your only chance to win, then you might not want to continue, but coupled with other outs it turns a fold into a call.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 09-12-2003, 03:32 AM
Brian Brian is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,440
Default Re: Help calculating odds after flop

I agree with the other posters here, just wanted to add that when you are looking at your outs in a situation such as this one, the pot may not be laying you as good of odds as you think. For example, if you count a J as an out, you could easily be drawing to a split pot (anyone else with a K), which cuts your odds in half.

-Brian
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 09-12-2003, 01:10 PM
chaos chaos is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: NYC
Posts: 370
Default Re: Help calculating odds after flop

So the flop betting went you check, bet, raise, reraise and now it is back to you. I would expect it to get capped behind you. So it will cost $80 and the other players capping and calling would bring the pot total up to $407. You are getting just over 5 to 1 on a call here. Your only real out is a Jack and that may be to split pot. The odds of hitting your inside straight draw are 43 to 4 or almost 11 to 1. You back door flush is not going to make much of a difference. This is a clear fold.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 09-12-2003, 01:50 PM
Terry Terry is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: The Appalachian Trail
Posts: 660
Default Re: Help calculating odds after flop

Also note that if you do catch a King or two, anyone with a Jack has made a straight.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:20 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.