Bailed QQ Too Quick?

[Festus22]

Party $1-2 and I get Q-Q MP. UTG open raises, folded to me, I 3-bet, LP and both blinds cold call and UTG calls.

Flop [6-6-9]. SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds. I pondered and then folded. In retrospect, I believe my play was to raise and fold to a 3-bet and that's usually how I'd play it but here's the BB betting into a preflop UTG raiser and a 3-bettor. My intuition definitely took over this decision and that's probably the crux of my question - when to trust your gut versus the "correct" play.

LP called all the way down and BB showed T-6s for the trips.

That was at least one BB saved but was it earned?

[Robk]

You're getting 16-1 on the flop call, and your odds of catching a queen are 23-1. Considering your implied odds it would be a mistake to fold here even if you knew the BB had 99. Throw in the significant chance that you are ahead of something like T9, JJ, 78s, etc. and folding is a big mistake. Since you are going to play on you should probably raise to put pressure on the players behind you who would be getting correct odds (against your hand) to call with any pair or one overcard. If you're 3-bet you have to call because of chances of spiking a Q.

[Festus22]

Thanks Rob. Your analysis of the odds involved is revealing. But as I alluded to in my original post, is there room for intuition in LL Holdem or should one play strictly "mechanical" poker? Certainly over the long haul, playing the odds will produce positive results. Perhaps the subtleties of poker are more relevant in a B&M game than online. In that context, how many here play solely using pot and implied odds as the guiding principle versus how many combine odds with a gut feel of what to do?

I guess the question could be boiled down to does a computer make a better low limit holdem player than a human being?

[Bob T.]

You had the odds in favor of calling a bet here, if you rely on your gut feel to fold, you are costing yourself money in the long run. It is true, that 21 out of 22 times, you will not see a Queen on the turn, but the one time that you would, you would make your money up, with a little interest. Folding cost you money, even though it is right the vast majority of the time, because the payoffs for the fold being correct is one small bet, and the payoff for the call being correct is a fistfull of big bets.

[Bokonon]

Maybe I'm not looking deep enough into this, but this is a $1/$2 game at Party. Is it completely out of the question that the guy could be betting with A9, TT, or JJ? A raise and then (maybe) fold to a re-raise seems the best course.

Yeah, he bet into two other guys who three-bet before the flop. On the other hand, I think you're giving him a bit too much credit . . . he cold-called two bets preflop with T6s. Admittedly, I'm a fish, but this doesn't scream Poker Genius.

[GrinningBuddha]

I'd bet a 9 from the BB here quite often, not to mention TT, JJ, and perhaps even 78s (not that I'd call 2 bets with it, mind you). A raise is mandatory here. Also keep in mind that many low limit players wait until the turn to bet/raise with trips, for right or wrong.